2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

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INFORMS Nashville – 2016
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SA44
2 - Tradespace Tools For Engineering Resilient Systems
Valerie B. Sitterle, Senior Research Engineer,
Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA, United States,
Santiago Balestrini-Robinson,
Dane F. Freeman, James Arruda, Simon R. Goerger,
Tommer R. Ender
Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) is a U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
program focusing on effective, efficient development of complex engineered
systems across their lifecycle and different future operational needs and mission
contexts. This presentation will describe the ERS TRADESPACE toolset being
collaboratively developed for the DoD Acquisitions community to support the
end-to-end set of integrated processes necessary to specify stakeholder needs and
create tradespaces for exploration in synergy with decision analysis methods. We
will also discuss how traditional decision analysis may be a foundation from
which to explore additional questions relevant to key decision makers.
3 - Decision Analysis In The Engineering Body Of Knowledge
Gregory S Parnell, University of Arkansas,
We review the definitions of decision analysis and list the decision analysis articles
in the body of knowledge for the following professional societies: INFORMS, the
Society for Decision Professionals, the Military Operations Research Society
(MORS), The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), and the
American Society for Engineering Management (ASEM).
4 - Evaluating Stakeholder Requirements To Assess Resiliency For
Engineered Resilient Systems
Christina Rinaudo, USACE Engineer Research and Development
Center (ERDC), Vicksburg, MS, United States,
, Randy K Buchanan
Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) research focuses on identifying methods and
incorporating processes to enable model-based systems engineering analysis early
in the acquisition life cycle. ERS research efforts include defining, quantifying,
and developing a methodology to analyze system resiliency. Previous research
described an aspect of resilience as robustness and proposed a workflow to
quantify robustness using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). This
presentation describes the application of the robustness workflow to evaluate
design alternatives using the system requirements generated during the
development of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle.
SA44
208B-MCC
Applications of Decision Analysis to Natural
Resource Management
Sponsored: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Karen Jenni, US Geological Survey, DFC, MS 939, Denver, CO,
80225, United States,
Co-Chair: Michael Runge, US Geological Survey, Patuxant Wildlife
Research Center, Laural, MD, 20708, United States,
1 - Optimal Design Of Protection Zones For Wildlife.
Julien Martin, US Geological Survey,
The establishment of protection areas to reduce mortality risk of wildlife is a
common management action, yet implementation of these zones can be
contentious. We apply optimization approaches to determine optimal
configuration of protection zones that meet management objectives under various
costs and constraints scenarios. One key management objective is to minimize
risk of deadly collisions. We apply encounter rate theory to quantify the relative
risk of lethal collisions between marine mammals and watercraft.
2 - Managing A Long-term Tidal Estuary Restoration: An Adaptive
Framework For Decisions Under Uncertainty And Risk
David R Smith, Researcj Statistician, US Geological Survey,
Leetown, WV, 25430, United States,
Jill Gannon, Mitchell J Eaton
In collaboration with NPS, we developed a decision framework to help guide
restoration of an ecologically degraded estuary, restricted from tidal influence for
100+ years. Decisions involve the timeframe under which restored tidal exchange
will occur via modified water control structures, and implementation of
secondary actions to address specific concerns. Decision complexity is magnified
by multiple objectives, a long restoration horizon, high uncertainty about
ecosystem response to hydrologic changes and low risk tolerance by numerous
stakeholders. Although leaning is anticipated to occur rapidly, problem
complexity limits the application of formal adaptive management principles.
3 - Models And Tools To Support Decision Making On Multiple,
Future, As-yet Unclear Management Issues
Karen Jenni, US Geological Survey,
The USGS is developing a set of approaches and tools for conducting multi-
resource analyses. These tools are intended to support decision making on a
variety of future issues related to landscape-scale resource management. The tools
can be used to consider multiple natural resources and sources of change and to
address the relationships among resources and the social and economic impacts of
resource change over time. We will discuss some of the unique challenges in
scoping, defining, and building such models, focusing on the benefits a decision
analysis approach brings even to problems without a clearly defined issue or
specifically identified decision-makers.
4 - Casting Endangered Species Recovery As A Budget
Allocation Problem
Michael C Runge, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center,
Laurel, MD, 20708, United States, ,
Leah R. Gerber, Jeff Newman, Lynn A. Maguire,
Richard F. Maloney, Deborah T. Crouse
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is charged with managing recovery
programs for species listed under the Endangered Species Act. At an agency level,
this can be seen as the allocation of scarce resources to a portfolio of individual
recovery efforts, taking into account the potential synergies among programs, as
well as the opportunity to motivate additional funding from external partners. We
are working with FWS to frame such decisions, using combinatorial optimization
to explore solutions. Initial results suggest recovery outcomes could be improved
with strategic budget allocation. Further, this framework provides a way to clearly
articulate the benefits of increased funding.
SA45
209A-MCC
Financial Network Structure and Systemic Risk
Invited: Risk and Compliance
Invited Session
Chair: Rafael Mendoza, McCombs School of Business, University of
Texas, Austin, TX, 78712, United States, rafael.mendoza-
Co-Chair: John R Birge, University of Chicago, 5807 S Woodlawn Ave,
Chicago, IL, 60637, United States,
1 - Financial Network Structure And Systemic Risk
John R Birge, University of Chicago,
This talk will present a tutorial on financial network structure and systemic risk,
the impact of the structure on the propagation of shocks and the potential for
failure cascades. The tutorial will describe basic models and their implications and
an examination of the inclusion of endogenous decisions on inter-relationships.
SA46
209B-MCC
Pricing and New Product Management
Sponsored: Revenue Management & Pricing
Sponsored Session
Chair: Nur Sunar, UNC, Chapel Hill, NC, United States,
1 - Optimal Subscription Pricing For Free Delivery Services
Chinmoy Mohapatra, PhD Student, The University of Texas at
Austin, McCombs School of Business, Austin, TX, 78712,
United States, , Anant Balakrishnan,
Shankar Sundaresan
We study the subscription pricing problem of a retailer that offers its consumers
two delivery choices: a pay-per-delivery option and a subscription option with
free delivery. The retailer balances the “loss” incurred in covering the shipping
costs of subscribers against the increase in revenue from the “lift” in their
purchase quantity. We develop a model based on a novel utility-based framework
that captures consumer heterogeneity, both in terms of their utility and
preference across different firms, characterize the retailer’s optimal subscription
pricing policy, and develop interesting insights.