49 / 118
Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017 |
49
4.4 Supply Potentials
European Union indigenous production is expected to
reach its peak in 2020, and is set to decrease from
120Gm³ in 2015 to 51 Gm³ in 2035 as is has been fore-
seen by ENTSOG for the TYNDP 2017, mostly due to an
acceleration of the decline in the Netherlands and the
North Sea. This will especially affect France, in which
9% of imported gas is L-gas produced in the Groningen
gas field in the Netherlands where gas extraction is
currently being slowed down to prevent earthquakes.
Gas production in Norway would remain stable over the coming years. However, in
the absence of discovery of new gas fields, extraction will decrease by approximately
25% by 2040 according to IEA predictions.
At present, the Iberian Peninsula is highly dependent on Algerian natural gas by
pipeline (see figure 4.5). The current downward trend of Algerian exports (–37%
between 2005 and 2015, explained by increased Algerian domestic demand and
uncertainty in the upstream’s investments), could have significant impact in South
Region. Therefore, it may be beneficial to ensure that access to other sources of pipe
gas extends throughout the Southern Region, by way of the interconnections at the
French and Spanish border.
In addition, the high level of regasification capacity in the South Region could help
mitigate the potential decrease of Algerian imports.
Possible new sources of natural gas primarily include Russia, which could be
exporting an additional 40bcm to Europe in 2030 in the TYNDP 2017 “Maximum
Scenario”. LNG is also a potential supplier, especially given the highly developed
regasification capacities in Europe.
Figure 4.9:
Supply potential forecasts to the EU 27 for Russia, Norway, and Algeria, bcm/year (Source: ENTSOG, TYNDP 2017)
Norway
Russia
Algeria
0
150
100
50
2017
2020
2030
250
200
bcm/year
2017
2020
2030
2017
2020
2030