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VI. DENTAL CLAIM RESERVE VALUATION -- METHODOLOGIES 1 - 6
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Approx Approx (MM)
12
Devel'd
Devel'd
12
Adj.
Adj.
ESTIMATED
# of
# of
Member Paid On Mos. Harm Ultimate
Ult Inc Mo Avg Inc
CRED.
Ult. Inc
Ult Inc
RESERV @
RUNOFF AT EST RES +
LAG(t)
MONTH and YEAR Employees Dependents Months Incurred CF(t)
Inc Clms
Clms/MM Clms/MM
FACTOR
Clms/MM
Clms
12/1/2016
EACH MOS RUNOFF
0
Dec 16
1,535
1,151
2,686
57,294
0.6247
91,712
34.14
34.38
0.6
34.24
91,972
34,678
NA
47,735
1
Nov 16
1,537
1,153
2,690
75,631
0.9405
80,420
29.90
34.24
1
29.90
80,420
4,789
39,224
52,282
2
Oct 16
1,532
1,149
2,681
70,033
0.9626
72,755
27.14
34.10
1
27.14
72,755
2,722
27,317
35,586
3
Sep 16
1,535
1,151
2,686
76,510
0.9770
78,312
29.15
33.97
1
29.15
78,312
1,802
34,011
39,558
4
Aug 16
1,533
1,150
2,683
87,441
0.9868
88,606
33.03
33.83
1
33.03
88,606
1,165
44,426
48,171
5
Jul 16
1,474
1,106
2,580
99,404
0.9904 100,372
38.91
33.69
1
38.91
100,372
968
43,866
46,445
6
Jun 16
1,524
1,143
2,667
117,526 0.9939 118,243
44.34
33.55
1
44.34
118,243
717
65,537
67,148
7
May 16
1,547
1,160
2,707
75,758
0.9955
76,098
28.11
33.42
1
28.11
76,098
340
36,981
37,875
8
Apr 16
1,548
1,161
2,709
75,655
0.9973
75,863
28.00
33.28
1
28.00
75,863
208
37,792
38,347
9
Mar 16
1,548
1,161
2,709
88,972
0.9983
89,127
32.90
33.15
1
32.90
89,127
154
52,322
52,669
10
Feb 16
1,550
1,163
2,713
90,407
0.9989
90,503
33.37
33.01
1
33.37
90,503
96
42,237
42,429
11
Jan 16
1,553
1,165
2,718
105,228 0.9991 105,324
38.75
32.88
1
38.75
105,324
96
52,172
52,267
12
Dec 15
1,553
1,165
2,718
105,168 1.0000 105,168
38.70
32.75
1
38.70
105,168
0
58,244
58,244
13
Nov 15
1,555
1,166
2,721
73,611
1.0000
73,611
27.05
32.61
1
27.05
73,611
0
34,522
34,522
14
Oct 15
1,546
1,160
2,706
68,887
1.0000
68,887
25.46
32.48
1
25.46
68,887
0
29,666
29,666
15
Sep 15
1,545
1,159
2,704
63,501
1.0000
63,501
23.49
32.35
1
23.49
63,501
0
42,189
42,189
16
Aug 15
1,523
1,142
2,665
81,453
1.0000
81,453
30.56
32.22
1
30.56
81,453
0
42,469
42,469
17
Jul 15
1,468
1,101
2,569
113,215 1.0000 113,215
44.07
32.09
1
44.07
113,215
0
38,542
38,542
18
Jun 15
1,516
1,137
2,653
124,218 1.0000 124,218
46.82
31.96
1
46.82
124,218
0
48,586
48,586
19
May 15
1,525
1,144
2,669
63,112
1.0000
63,112
23.65
31.83
1
23.65
63,112
0
25,961
25,961
20
Apr 15
1,528
1,146
2,674
102,053 1.0000 102,053
38.17
31.70
1
38.17
102,053
0
49,527
49,527
21
Mar 15
1,527
1,145
2,672
96,678
1.0000
96,678
36.18
31.57
1
36.18
96,678
0
40,603
40,603
22
Feb 15
1,529
1,147
2,676
89,044
1.0000
89,044
33.28
31.44
1
33.28
89,044
0
25,075
25,075
23
Jan 15
1,527
1,145
2,672
100,700 1.0000 100,700
37.68
31.31
1
37.68
100,700
0
33,681
33,681
TOTAL RESERVE ESTIMATE:
47,735
REINSURANCE ADJUSTMENT FACTOR IS 1.000
RESERVE ESTIMATE AT DECEMBER 31, 2016
PARAMETERS RESERVE REINS.
ULT OF CURRENT
A. USING A 12 MONTH HARMONIC AVERAGE CF(t):
HARM. CLM AVG ESTIMATE RECOVER. RESERVE2 Mos Pd Clms
1. DENTAL CLAIM RESERVE USING A 12 MONTH PMPM AVG CHARGE:
12
12
47,735
1.00
47,735
4.43%
2. DENTAL CLAIM RESERVE USING A 6 MONTH PMPM AVG CHARGE:
12
6
47,775
1.00
47,775
4.43%
B. USING A 6 MONTH HARMONIC AVERAGE CF(t):
1. DENTAL CLAIM RESERVE USING A 12 MONTH PMPM AVG CHARGE:
6
12
50,086
1.00
50,086
4.65%
2. DENTAL CLAIM RESERVE USING A 6 MONTH PMPM AVG CHARGE:
6
6
50,154
1.00
50,154
4.65%
C. USING A 3 MONTH HARMONIC AVERAGE CF(t):
1. DENTAL CLAIM RESERVE USING A 12 MONTH PMPM AVG CHARGE:
3
12
49,189
1.00
49,189
4.56%
2. DENTAL CLAIM RESERVE USING A 6 MONTH PMPM AVG CHARGE:
3
6
49,231
1.00
49,231
4.57%