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Figure: Most of the water flowing into the sea

comes from coastal rivers

– currently supplying 300

to 310 cubic km a year. The Volga alone accounts

for 80% of inflow. But it has dropped substantially

during the 20th century, declining from about 400

cubic km in the 1920-30s to between 260 cubic km

and 270 cubic km at present, due to various climatic

factors and human activities such as dams built for

hydroelectric energy production. Rainfall over the

sea itself is estimated to input 130 cubic km a year.

Water loss through infiltration into the ground ac-

counts for less than 5 cubic km and flow into the

Kara Bogaz Gulf for about 18 cubic km, since the de-

struction of the dyke. Natural evaporation from the

sea is estimated to produce a loss of between 350

cubic km and 375 cubic km a year. The combination

of these water input (around 440 cubic km) and wa-

ter loss (around 373 cubic km) estimates suggest

that at present the water level in the Caspian Sea

should be continuing to rise.

infrastructure on land and offshore, and destruc-

tion of beaches. Several tens of thousands of people

in the lowlands of Azerbaijan, Daghestan and the

Volga delta had to move. In Azerbaijan alone, dam-

age resulting from the rise in sea level is estimated

at $2bn. In Kazakhstan the encroaching sea has di-

rectly affected some 20,000 square kilometres of

land, including the abandoned oil wells.

The factors behind the changes in the level of the

Caspian are still the focus of debate. Scientists have

not ruled out the involvement of tectonic (move-

ment of the Earth’s crust below the sea) or geomor-

phologic causes (rate of sedimentation). However

these would appear to have a minor impact in com-

parison to changing climatic factors, combined

with the effects of human management of surface

water in the Caspian basin. Most of the water flow-

ing into the sea comes from coastal rivers. The

quantity and quality of this water, particularly that

of the Volga, are key variables in the balance of the

Caspian. To this must be added rainfall over the sea

itself. Water may be also be lost through infiltration

into the ground and flow into the Kara Bogaz Gulf,

but these factors are insignificant compared with

natural evaporation from the sea.

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