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Contrasting rainfall trends have been observed in the

north and south. Whereas rainfall over Russia has in-

creased over the last century, already dry areas such

as the coasts of Turkmenistan and Iran have become

even drier. Dust storms pick up large amounts of salt

and dust as they pass over the Kara-Kum desert and

the Caspian shore, depositing it in the Volga valley

where it impairs the fertility of arable land.

But the availability of freshwater, on which many sec-

tors of the economy – and human well-being – de-

pend, is also linked to more remote climatic process-

es. If glaciers in the Caucasus and Elburz mountains

recede and the periods of snow cover become shorter,

as has been the case in recent years, less water will be

available for use in irrigation and homes.

Melting glaciers do not only result in the disappear-

ance of pretty white mountain caps. The processes

caused by warmer mean temperatures also in-

crease the risk of natural disasters associated with

changing environmental conditions. For example,

in the last 30 years mudflows in the Terek river

basin in the north-eastern Caucasus have occurred

almost annually. The most destructive mudflows

were recorded in 2000 and were perhaps linked to

persistent above-average summer temperatures. In

September 2002 the Kolka glacier near Mount Ka-

zbek, the highest peak in the eastern Caucasus, col-

lapsed. The water that had accumulated inside and

below the glacier triggered an avalanche that trav-

elled more than 24 kilometres at very high speed

killing over 120 people.

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