GRIP CEE 2017 / Main Report

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Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017

3.2 Disrupted Demand,

Remaining Flexibility

and Preconditions for

Assessment

This analysis presents the evolution of a Disrupted Rate (DR) and a Remaining Flex-

ibility (RF) indicator in the CEE region under the following stress scenarios modelled

for the years 2017, 2020 and 2025:

Simultaneous disruption of the gas supply routes via Ukraine and Belarus

Disruption of the Russian gas supply source

The baseline reference scenario is the normal situation when there is no disruption.

The target of this analysis is not to identify which projects might directly mitigate the

risks of demand disruption or low Remaining Flexibility but to determine their impact

under the stress scenarios described.

The preconditions for this assessment are based on the TYNDP 2017 methodology.

The assessment is prepared under three demand scenarios1):

Blue Transition

Green Evolution

EU Green Revolution

For two climatic situations:

1-day Design Case (DC, Peak Day)

2-week high demand case (2W, 14-day uniform risk)

And four infrastructure levels which are considered in the assessment:

LOW infrastructure level

ADVANCED infrastructure level

PCI 2

list infrastructure level

HIGH infrastructure level

1) For detailed information about the methodology used, please see the TYNDP 2017 and its annexes which are available

under the following link: