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Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017 |
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2017
2020 Low
2025 Low
2025 PCI
2025 High
2020 PCI
2020 High
20%< RF
5% < RF ≤ 20%
1% < RF ≤ 5%
0% < RF ≤ 1%
Remaining Flexibility (RF)
0.001%< DR ≤ 5%
5% < DR ≤ 10%
10% < DR ≤ 50%
50% < DR
Disrupted Rate (DR)
Figure 3.5:
Evolution of Disrupted Rate (DR) and Remaining Flexibility (RF),
Route gas disruption via Ukraine + Belarus, Peak Day (DC), Green Evolution
The simultaneous transit disruption of
Russian gas imports via Ukraine and
Belarus is one of two additional disrup-
tion cases which were specially per-
formed for CEE GRIP purposes. Coun-
tries in the CEE region are the countries
most dependent on the transit of Rus-
sian gas, and the gas supply routes
through Ukraine and Belarus are histor-
ically the most important for supplying
the region.
The simultaneous disruption of supply
via Belarus and Ukraine would lead to
the redirection of gas flows from Russia.
Nord Stream would then be used as the
only pipeline to transport Russian gas to
the CEE region. The results indicate
that Poland would be negatively affect-
ed by the disruption of gas supply
routes via Belarus and Ukraine. Also,
countries in southeastern Europe (Cro-
atia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria)
would be affected by a disruption of the
gas supply route via Ukraine. At the
same time, the gas supply via Nord
Stream pipeline would leave Germany,
the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria,
and Slovenia unaffected.
The results under the LOW infrastruc-
ture scenario show the need for infra-
structure to provide diversified supplies
of gas and market integration that
would benefit Poland, the southeastern
EU countries, and the CEE region as a
whole. This is illustrated by the improv-
ing situation if the planned infrastruc-
ture projects are implemented. In par-
ticular, projects which improve the
security of supply and the diversifica-
tion of gas sources and routes mitigate
the effects of this disruption case.