54 / 88
54 |
Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017
4.4 Disruption via Ukraine
When a gas supply disruption through Ukraine was
considered, the CEE GRIP Regional N-1 analysis identi-
fied a problem in Bulgaria and Romania during the
winter period 2017/2018. During this time period, the
capacity of the bidirectional IP Ruse (BG)/Giurgiu (RO)
cannot be used due to the lack of gas in both countries.
If planned infrastructure projects (from the High Infrastructure Scenario) are imple-
mented in time, then the Regional N-1 criterion will be met for Bulgaria and Roma-
nia from the perspective of 2020/2021. In the analysed winter periods 2020/2021
and 2025/2026, the countries from the CEE region have no trouble in covering their
domestic demand in the event of a gas supply disruption through Ukraine. The
results are presented in the following table.
RESULTS OF CEE GRIP REGIONAL N-1 WINTER
IN CASE OF A DISRUPTION VIA UKRAINE
COUNTRY
CEE GRIP Regional N-1 Winter
01.10.2017 –
31.03.2018
01.10.2020 –
31.03.2021
01.10.2025 –
31.03.2026
Austria
4.1427
4.9457
4.9457
Bulgaria
0.3449
1.1360
2.8557
Croatia
1.2289
1.4823
3.5177
Czech Republic
2.7627
3.5492
5.0676
Hungary
1.3485
1.2138
2.0745
Poland
1.3333
1.6655
1.8424
Romania
0.9775
1.1963
1.5255
Slovakia
4.1031
6.1296
6.0259
Slovenia
2.8330
3.2676
8.8429
Table 4.1:
Results of CEE GRIP Regional N-1 Winter in case of a disruption via Ukraine