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Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017
4.5 Disruption via Belarus
The CEE GRIP Regional N-1 analysis of a gas supply
disruption through Belarus (including the interconnec-
tion points Wysokoje, Tietierówka, Kondratki and the
Yamal-Europe Pipeline in the direction BY>PL)
indicated that only Poland would be affected by this
kind of gas supply disruption. The results of the analysis
shows that Poland meets the N-1 criterion during all
the analysed winter periods (2017/2018, 2020/2021
and 2025/2026) and that the results improve in the
upcoming 10 years with the implementation of the
new planned infrastructure projects.
Other countries in the CEE region would not be affected by a gas supply disruption
via Belarus. Most of their gas transmission systems would operate in a business-as-
usual regime, and their N-1 results would be above 1. This means that under normal
circumstances all countries of the analysed CEE region (including Poland) would
have sufficient capacity to both satisfy their domestic demand and transit needs to
neighbouring countries over the whole 10-year period.
The results for countries in the analysed CEE region which would be affected by a
gas supply disruption via Belarus, are presented in the following table.
RESULTS OF CEE GRIP REGIONAL N-1 WINTER
IN CASE OF A DISRUPTION VIA BELARUS
COUNTRY
CEE GRIP Regional N-1 Winter
01.10.2017 –
31.03.2018
01.10.2020 –
31.03.2021
01.10.2025 –
31.03.2026
Austria
No effect
No effect
No effect
Bulgaria
No effect
No effect
No effect
Croatia
No effect
No effect
No effect
Czech Republic
No effect
No effect
No effect
Hungary
No effect
No effect
No effect
Poland
1.1902
1.5369
1.9207
Romania
No effect
No effect
No effect
Slovakia
No effect
No effect
No effect
Slovenia
No effect
No effect
No effect
Table 4.2:
Results of CEE GRIP Regional N-1 Winter in case of a disruption via Belarus