Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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3 - Stimulating the Creation of More and Better Alternatives
using Objectives
Ralph L. Keeney, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University,
101 Lombard Street, #704W, San Francisco, CA, 94111,
United States of America, , Johannes Siebert
The quality of alternatives considered, perhaps more than the quality of the
decisions made, influences the desirability of the subsequent consequences.
Several experiments investigated the implications of different procedures to create
alternatives. From the results, we developed guidelines to effectively create better
alternatives for decisions with incomplete sets of alternatives.
4 - Proving the Effectiveness of an Online-course
on Decision-making
Johannes Siebert, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, D-95440,
Germany, , Reinhard Kunz
We use the proactive decision-making (PDM) scale before and after an online-
course on decision-making to prove its positive impact on its participants. In line
with our hypotheses, the four proactive cognitive skills systematic identification of
objectives, systematic search for information, systematic identification of
alternatives, and using a ‘decision radar’ improved significantly while the two
proactive personality traits showing initiative and striving for improvement
remain stable.
MC65
65-Room 113B, CC
Joint Session DAS/MAS:Game Theory, Decision
Analysis, and Homeland Security, Part A
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Jun Zhuang, University at Buffalo, SUNY, 317 Bell Hall, Buffalo,
NY, 14221, United States of America,
1 - Deterence and Risk Preferences in A Sequential Attacker-
defender Game with Continuous Defense Effort
Vineet Madasseri Payyappall, PhD Student, University at Buffalo,
305 Winspear Avenue (Upper), Buffalo, NY, 14215, United States
of America, , Jun Zhuang,
Victor Richmond Jose
Most attacker-defender games consider players as risk-neutral, whereas in reality,
attackers and defenders may be risk-seeking or risk-averse. We study the impact
of player’s risk preferences on their equilibrium behavior and their impact on the
notion of deterrence. We present analytic results, numerical illustration, and
discussion which provide insights that could be used by policy analysts and
decision makers involved in investment decisions in security and safety.
2 - Dynamic Modeling of Bombing Attack Threat Based on
Time-series Process and Intervention Analysis
Shuying Li, Tsinghua University, 1017, Building Liuqing,
Tsinghua Uni., Beijing, China, , Jun Zhuang,
Shifei Shen
In the recent years, various kinds of terrorist attacks occurred frequently. Among
all tactics of attacks, bombing attack is the highest threat, followed by armed
assault. A model for analyzing and predicting bombing attacks threat based on
time-series process is developed. The model is validated by using terrorist attack
data from the Global Terrorism Database between 2004 and 2014. Intervention
analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the process.
3 - Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of ISIL
and its Followers
Richard John, Associate Professor, University of Southern
California, 3620 McClintock Ave., Dept. of Psychology, MC-1061,
Los Angeles, CA, 90266-1061, United States of America,
, Detlof Von Winterfeldt, Johannes Siebert
This study addresses three questions: (1) What are the objectives of the leaders of
ISIL? (2) What are the objectives of the followers of ISIL? (3) How are the two
sets of objectives related? We analyzed the transcripts of interviews and
presentations of 59 subject matter experts (SMEs) and conducted a separate
analysis of speeches of ISIL leaders and Internet sources. In both efforts we
identified and structured the strategic, fundamental, and means objectives of ISIL
and its followers.
4 - A Robust Resolution of Newcomb’s Paradox
Thomas Weber, Associate Professor, EPFL, CDM-ODY 3.01,
Station 5, Lausanne, VD, 1015, Switzerland,
Newcomb’s problem is viewed as a dynamic game. Depending on whether or not
a risk-neutral agent’s belief about the move order exceeds a threshold, one
obtains the one-box outcome or the two-box outcome, respectively. The findings
extend to an agent with arbitrary increasing utility, featuring in general two
thresholds. All solutions require only minimal assumptions about the being’s
payoffs and it is always sure to predict the agent’s choice in equilibrium. Some
practical settings are discussed.
MC66
66-Room 113C, CC
Ongoing Challenges in Airline Operations Planning
Sponsor: Aviation Applications
Sponsored Session
Chair: Norbert Lingaya, Manager Of Optimization Technologies, Kronos
Incorporated, 3535 Queen Mary Road, Suite 500, Montreal, QC H3V
1H8, Canada,
1 - Broadening the Manpower Planning Horizon with Altitude Insight
Luc Charest, Operations Research Specialist, AD OPT, A Kronos
Division, 3535 chemin Queen-Mary Ouest, Montréal, QC, H3V
1H8, Canada, Alain Marcotte
AD OPT’s Altitude Insight addresses crew manpower planning for airline
operations by producing optimized staffing plans that satisfy expected company
requirements. In the short and medium term, Insight identifies position openings
to be assigned and scheduled as trainings to crew members. As the horizon
widens, the focus shifts to budgetary objectives with constraints on volumetric
distributions. In this talk, we present some long-term manpower planning
concepts and their related challenges.
2 - Improving Branching in Airline Crew Pairing Problem with
Base Constraints
Frederic Quesnel, GERAD, 2900 Boulevard Edouard-Montpetit,
Montreal, Canada, , François Soumis,
Guy Desaulniers
In the context of crew pairing, many of the real-world crew pairing solvers
consider restrictions on the total number of working time at each crew base.
These base constraints have not been often studied academically. We propose a
Danzig-Wolfe decomposition formulation for crew pairing problem that includes
base constraints. We show how they degrade the resolution of the problem. We
propose different branching schemes to improve the computational time and the
objective value of our instances.
3 - Simultaneous Airline Crew Recovery Problem
Atoosa Kasirzadeh, GERAD & Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal,
André-Aisenstadt Building, 2920, Chemin de la Tour, 4th Floor,
Montreal, Canada, François Soumis
Different sources of unpredicted disturbances such as adverse weather conditions
may affect the planned schedules for airline crew members. These disruptions
may result in delayed or canceled flights and affect the crew schedules. Due to
delay propagation, robust crew recovery problem will be very significant. We
study the simultaneous cockpit recovery problem where the planned schedules
are constructed using personalized scheduling approach.
4 - Airline Fleet Assignment with Stochastic Demand and
Limited Re-fleeting Recourse Actions
Guy Desaulniers, Polytechnique Montreal and GERAD,
2900 Boulevard Edouard-Montpetit, Montreal, Canada,
, David Lasalle Ialongo
We introduce a new fleet assignment model that considers a stochastic demand
and the possibility to perform re-fleeting on pre-computed chains of flights as
recourse actions. This integer model is solved by the Cplex MIP solver and
embedded in a loop with a passenger assignment model to compute the revenues.
We report computational results on data sets derived from a North American
carrier schedule involving more than 5,000 flights over a week and 20,000
passenger itineraries.
MC66