Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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2 - Demand-side Power Procurement with Renewable Generation
and Energy Storage
Soongeol Kwon, Texas A&M University, 3131 TAMU,
College Station, TX, 77843, United States of America,
, Natarajan Gautam
We consider operational decisions to satisfy power demand while minimizing
purchase cost over time-varying electricity prices. In our scenario, consumers use
renewable sources to serve power demand and operate energy storage. We
propose a two-stage stochastic optimization problem to control purchase,
consumption and operations based on day-ahead and real-time procurement
while responding to variability and uncertainty in power demand, renewable
sources and electricity prices.
3 - Wind Speed Forecasting for Wind Parks: A Sequential
Modeling Approach
Vignesh Subramanian, Dept. of Industrial and Management
Systems Engineering, University of South Florida, ENB118,
Tampa, FL, United States of America,
Tapas K. Das
Inherently intermittent nature of wind energy makes it essential to accurately
predict wind speed for reliable operation of power systems comprising wind
generation. We propose a two-stage model. Stage I uses SVM to classify wind
speed into three clusters: zero power, rated power, and continuous power. Stage II
employs a Bayesian additive regression kernel (BARK) method to the continuous
power cluster to estimate the wind speed. The model is tested on numerical
weather prediction (NWP) data.
4 - Capacity Remuneration in the Belgian Electricity Market
Anthony Papavasiliou, Université Catholique de Louvain,
Voie du Roman Pays 34, Louvain la Neuve, Ou, 1348, Belgium,
Belgium experienced a serious shortage in capacity recently due to the unplanned
outage of nuclear capacity. This has motivated an investigation of Belgian capacity
remuneration mechanisms. In this presentation we compare the existing fixed
reserve requirements mechanism with the introduction of operating reserve
demand curves in reserve auctions.
TB58
58-Room 110A, CC
Topics in Nuclear Energy
Sponsor: ENRE – Energy II – Other (e.g., Policy, Natural Gas,
Climate Change)
Sponsored Session
Chair: Alexandra Newman, Professor, Colorado School of Mines,
Mechanical Engineering, Golden, CO, 80401, United States of America,
1 - Optimizing the Placement of Radioactive Isotope Measurement
Devices in a Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Ben Johnson, PhD Student, Colorado School of Mines,
Golden, CO, 80401, United States of America,
, Alexandra Newman, Jeffrey King
The purpose of nuclear safeguards is to prevent proliferation of radioactive
material. Enhancing methods to detect potential proliferation will help reduce the
increasing threat of malicious entities successfully obtaining nuclear material. We
create a mixed integer program to determine how many, where, and which types
of radioactive isotope measurement devices should be used in the nuclear fuel
cycle to minimize the weighted sum of Type I and Type II measurement errors.
2 - Modeling Societal Disruption from Nuclear Accidents to Inform
Regulatory Decision-making
Vicki Bier, Professor, University of Wisconsin - Madison, 1513
University Avenue, 3270A Mechanical Engineering Building,
Madison, WI, 53706, United States of America,
Michael Corradini, Caleb Roh, Shuji Liu,
Robert Youngblood
Nuclear regulation in the U.S. focuses on preventing radiation-related fatalities.
However, recent experience shows that societal disruption from relocation can be
considerable, arguably more significant than radiation-induced health effects. We
have evaluated the population relocation that could occur after severe reactor
accidents as a proxy for societal disruption, and argue that regulatory guidance
should constrain societal disruption as well as radiation exposure.
3 - Economics of High-temperature Reactors for Industrial
Cogeneration: A Utility’s Perspective
Reinhard Madlener, , Jona
Hampe
This paper studies the economic potential of using HTRs for cogeneration of
industrial process heat and electricity. We find that a reference case HTR can
deliver cost-competitive process heat (at 200 ∞C), thus rendering the chemical
and pulp & paper industries potential candidates. We use real options analysis to
deal with uncertainty and the managerial flexibilities of the project. We also
propose a model to calculate the option of switching between two different
operation modes.
4 - Selecting the Optimum Nuclear Fuel Cycle Including
Quasi-rational Opinions and Public Perception
Sama Bilbao Y Leon, Associate Professor, Virginia Commonwealth
University, 401 W Main St, Richmond, VA, 23284, United States
of America, ,
John Swanson, Ishoc Salaam, Jonathan Hill
Although much work has been done to address the technological challenges
associated with the management and ultimate disposal of used nuclear fuel, less
attention has been given to public perception and acceptance of the selected fuel
cycle. This work presents current progress in a decision making model based on
Multi-Attribute Utility Theory that contains the fundamental objectives for both
technical and non-technical factors.
TB59
59-Room 110B, CC
Fire Management 2: Landscape & Modeling
Sponsor: ENRE – Environment II – Forestry
Sponsored Session
Chair: Hailey Buckingham,
1 - Timber Harvest and Fuel Treatment Decisions with Fire Risk
Chris Lauer, Claire Montgomery
This paper attempts to determine the optimal timing and location of fuel
treatments and timber harvests for a multi-stand landscape, accounting for the
spatial interactions that drive the fire behavior. An optimization method known
as value iteration is used to solve the dynamic program. Outcomes for multiple
land ownership configurations are explored.
2 - Integrating Wildfire Risk and Spread in a Cellular Forest
Harvesting Model
Marc McDill, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA,
United States of America, , Susete Marques,
José Borges
We present a stochastic, cellular multi-objective forest harvest scheduling model
incorporating a mechanistic model of fire risk probability based on the state of a
cell and the probability of fire in neighboring cells. The model illustrates a
potential approach to integrate management activities including fuel treatments
and harvesting to address multiple objectives.
TB60
60-Room 111A, CC
Education II
Contributed Session
Chair: Omar Ben-ayed, Professor of Management, Qatar University,
Al Jameaa Street, P.O. Box 2713, Doha, 2713, Qatar,
1 - Challenges of Imbedding a Built-In OR/MS Paradigm among
Engineering Graduates
Thong Goh, Professor, National University of Singapore,
1 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore, 117576, Singapore,
There are many OR/MS courses at various levels that undergraduates can take.
However, many non-OR/MS disciplines may offer such courses as credit
accumulators, with both teachers and students having them as a subject of
learning and not something permanent that lasts into the students’ subsequent
working lives. This presentation discusses this issue with particular reference to
engineering undergraduate education, and explore ways to alleviate the situation.
TB58