Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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64-Room 113A, CC
Panel Discusssion: A Heated Discussion on Decision
Analysis and Systems Engineering
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Ali Abbas, Professor Of Industrial And Systems Engineering And
Public Policy And Director Of Create, University of Southern California,
3710 McClintock Avenue, RTH 314, Los Angeles, CA,
United States of America,
1 - The Need for a Sound Decision Making System
Moderator:Ali Abbas, Professor Of Industrial And Systems
Engineering And Public Policy And Director Of Create, University
of Southern California, 3710 McClintock Avenue, RTH 314, Los
Angeles, CA, United States of America,
This talk reflects on some widely used methods of multi-objective decision
making in both public and private enterprises, and demonstrates the issues with
their use and the need for a sound decision making system.
2 - Ethical Decision Analysis
Ronald Howard, Professor, Stanford University, 646 Tennyson
Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, 94301, United States of America,
Decision analysis is inherently amoral. Like fire or nuclear energy it can be used
for good or ill. The decision analyst and the decision maker have the ethical
responsibility for decisions. The decision maker for the choice of action and the
decision analyst as a conspirator or accomplice in clarifying what is to be done.
The daily news shows the consequences of abdicating ethical responsibility.
3 - There is No Rational Framework for Systems Engineering
George Hazelrigg, Deputy Division Director, National Science
Foundation, Civil, Mech. & Mfg Innovation, 4201 Wilson
Boulevard, Arlington, VA, 22230, United States of America,
Decision analysis for systems engineering is an oxymoron. Systems engineering
requires teams of people, for which decision analysis does not apply. Failure to
recognize this can lead to serious problems.
4 - Decision Analysis for Systems Engineering Trade-off Analyses
Greg Parnell, Professor, University of Arkansas, Department of
Industrial Engineering, Fayetteville, AR, 72701,
United States of America,
Critical systems decisions are made throughout the system life cycle. Decision
analysis offers a sound foundation for developing a composite model of complex
system alternatives, major uncertainties, and stakeholder values to provide
insights to systems decision makers.
5 - Decision Analysis - Towards a Theoretical Foundation of Systems
Engineering and Design
Chris Paredis, Program Director, National Science Foundation,
4201 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, VA, United States of America,
In a rapidly changing global context, out approach for engineering large-scale,
complex engineered systems must also adapt quickly. A theoretical foundation for
systems engineering and design is needed to help guide this adaptation in a
rigorous, systematic fashion. Decision analysis is an important cornerstone of this
foundation.
TB65
65-Room 113B, CC
Modeling in Decision Analysis
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Jeffrey Keisler, University of Massachusetts Boston,
100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, MA, 02125,
United States of America,
1 - When Decision Analysis Serves to Connect a Network
Jeffrey Keisler, University of Massachusetts Boston,
100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, MA, 02125,
United States of America,
An organization may wish to construct analytic models combining contributions
from different experts and stakeholders in order to guide decisions. We represent
this as a network of agents with reporting relationships, each with a vocabulary, a
knowledge base, potential observations. Is the network rich enough to ensure the
decider’s success? Recent results from mathematical logic give some answers and
possible implications for decision consulting.
2 - How Little Do Models Tell Us?
Eva Regnier, Associate Professor, Naval Postgraduate School,
699 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA, 93943, United States of America,
Erin Baker
In arenas including weather forecasting and climate policy, simulation modeling is
used to estimate uncertainty attributed to initial conditions. Model uncertainty
(sometimes called structural uncertainty) is much harder to quantify. We outline
a qualitative approach using Bayesian logic to answer the question: how much do
model results tell us?
3 - Agile Modeling Focused on Decision Making
Max Henrion, CEO, Lumina Decision Systems, Inc, 26010
Highland Way, Los Gatos, CA, 95033, United States of America,
Agile modeling borrows methods from agile software development, an alternative
to the conventional approaches starting from formal requirements. Instead
modelers start building a simple prototype, and refine it progressively, learning
and improving as they go. Decision analysis and sensitivity analysis helps focus
development on areas most decision-relevant.
TB66
66-Room 113C, CC
Delay Propagation and Robust Airline Operations
Sponsor: Aviation Applications
Sponsored Session
Chair: Milind Sohoni, Associate Professor Of Operations Management
And Sr. Associate Dean Of Programs, Indian School of Business,
Gachibowli, Indian School of Business, Gachibowli, Hyderabad, Pl,
500032, India,
1 - Improving Maintenance Robustness using a Route Adjustment
Tail Assignment Problem
Stephen Maher, Zuse Institute Berlin, Takustr. 7, Berlin, BE,
14195, Germany, Guy Desaulniers,
François Soumis
Maintenance planning is critical for airline operations. Daily schedule
perturbations regularly prohibit aircraft from receiving maintenance as required.
A robust approach employing one-day routes has been proposed, however,
perturbations still affect the delivery of maintenance. A tail assignment problem
that modifies routes to satisfy maintenance requirements is presented. This will
demonstrate that route modifications are a necessary augmentation to a robust
maintenance planning solution.
2 - Examining the Robustness of Airline Operations under
Weather Disruptions
Donald Richardson, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI,
, Luke Stumpos, George Tam, Amy Cohn,
Chhavi Chaudhry
We have compiled a database containing twelve years’ worth of flight data from
the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. By connecting this data with hourly
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather reports, we are able
to analyze how the weather affects the relationship between planned airline
schedules and the actual flight performance. The purpose of this research is to
provide a foundation for better understanding the robustness of airline operations
under weather disruptions.
3 - Data-driven Models for Robust Aircraft Routing
Lavanya Marla, Assistant Professor, University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign, 104 S. Mathews Avenue, 216E, Urbana, IL,
61801, United States of America,
Vikrant Vaze
We address the issue of pro-actively building robust aircraft routings that are less
vulnerable to uncertainty, by focusing on reducing delay propagation. We present
a series of data-driven models drawn from the classes of Robust Optimization and
Chance-Constrained Programming that generate solutions that (i)are faithful to
implicit information in the underlying data, and (ii)are less fragile to disruption.
We conclude with results from a real-world airline network to provide proof-of-
concept.
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