Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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2 - Designing a Reliable Bio-fuel Supply Chain Network Considering
Link Failure Probabilities
Linkan Bian, Assistant Professor, Mississippi State University,
260 McCain Building, Starkville, MS, 39762, United States of
America, , Sushil Poudel,
Mohammad Marufuzzaman
This study presents a pre-disaster planning model that seeks to strengthen the
multi-modal facilities links for a bio-fuel supply chain system under limited
budget availability. The failure probability of the links are estimated using a
spatial-statistical model. We developed a combinatorial Benders decomposition
algorithm to solve this challenging NP-hard problem.
3 - Managing Congestion in a Multi-modal Facility Location Problem
under Uncertainty
Mohammad Marufuzzaman, Mississippi State University,
Industrial & Systems Engineering, Starkville, MS, 39762,
United States of America,
This paper presents a mathematical model that studies the impacts of the
congestion effect in a multi-modal facility location design problem under
feedstock supply uncertainty. The model is solved using a hybrid algorithm that
integrates constraint generation, sample average approximation, progressive
hedging and rolling horizon algorithm.
TC63
63-Room 112B, CC
Operations Management I
Contributed Session
Chair: Mohammed Darwish, Associate Professor, Kuwait University,
Industrial and Management Systems Eng., P.O. Box 5969, Safat, 13060,
Kuwait,
1 - Probabilistic Estimation of the Inventory Shortage Cost
Feng Xu, Georgia Southwestern State University, 800 GSW State
University Drive, School of Business Administration, Americus,
GA, 31709, United States of America,
Due to the difficulty in calculating the loss of goodwill, in estimating the shortage
cost practitioners and researchers often assume a fixed penalty cost or switch to
assigning a specific customer service level. This paper proposes probabilistic
measurements of the shortage cost, based on mathematical relationship between
the cost and the shortage amount. The derived closed-form estimates of the
expected shortage cost can then be applied to determining the optimal inventory
control policy.
2 - Optimal Staffing with Endogenous Goals
Buket Avci, Singapore Management University, 50 Stamford
Road, Singapore, 248196, Singapore,
We investigate the optimal staffing level decision of a firm, when employee
performance is indirectly affected by staffing levels through workload. In the spirit
of Prospect Theory, we posit that goals act as reference points, and there is an
asymmetry between under and over-performance relative to a goal. We solve the
corresponding principal-agent model in a queueing context and characterize
conditions when endogenous goals are relevant for staffing decisions.
3 - Quality Management Theory Development via Meta-analysis
Xianghui Peng, University of North Texas, 1307 West Highland
Street, College of Business, Denton, TX, 76201, United States of
America, , Victor Prybutok, Robert Pavur
A meta-analysis is conducted on the empirical studies in quality management
(QM). The results allow evaluation of the relationship strength among QM
practices, performance, and content factors. The longitudinal evaluation in this
study investigates how relationships and content factors in the post-2005 period
compare with the pre-2005 period.
4 - Determination of the Maximum Worth of Auctioned Lots using
Acceptance Sampling Method
Mohammed Darwish, Associate Professor, Kuwait University,
Industrial and Management Systems Eng., P.O. Box 5969, Safat,
13060, Kuwait, , Fawaz Abdulmalek
In recent years, auction becomes an important method of buying and selling
different items around the world. The most common type of auctions that is
found in practice is the English Auction where a bidder inspects the auctioned lot
by taking a sample and based on the number of defective items found in the
sample, he or she takes a critical decision regarding the maximum worth of the
auctioned lot. We show how the maximum worth of an auctioned lot can be
determined using acceptance sampling.
5 - Progressive Modeling: Towards a New Complex Systems
Optimization Paradigm
Mohamed Ismail, Assistant Professor, University of Regina,
3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, SK, S4S0A2, Canada,
Progressive Modeling (PM) is a multidisciplinary forward-looking modeling
approach that finds pragmatic solutions for many complex and large-scale
industrial problems. Many related applications will presented to demonstrate the
principles and the techniques adopted in this paradigm. The new modeling
paradigm is expected to have many engineering applications and influence many
disciplines such as systems optimization, Operations management, and system of
systems engineering.
TC64
64-Room 113A, CC
Panel Discussion: Analytics and Decision Analysis
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Jeffrey Keisler, University of Massachusetts Boston,
100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, MA, 02125,
United States of America,
1 - Analytics and Decision Analysis
Moderator:Jeffrey Keisler, University of Massachusetts Boston,
100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, MA, 02125, United States of
America, , Panelists: Jeff Vales,
Casey Lichtendahl, John Turner, Don Kleinmuntz, Max Henrion
Huge increases in data availability and computing power have transformed
quantitative fields and led to a proliferation of tools for analytics. Panelists will
discuss how can DA strengthen analytics broadly defined, and how can analytics
strengthen DA.
TC65
65-Room 113B, CC
Joint Session DAS/MAS:Game Theory, Decision
Analysis, and Homeland Security, Part B
Sponsor: Decision Analysis
Sponsored Session
Chair: Jun Zhuang, University at Buffalo, SUNY, 317 Bell Hall, Buffalo,
NY, 14221, United States of America,
1 - Modeling A Multi-target Attacker-defender Resource Allocation
Game Considering Risk Preferences
Jing Zhang, University at Buffalo, SUNY, 338 Bell Hall, Buffalo,
NY, 14221, United States of America,
Jun Zhuang, Victor Richmond Jose
Although evidence has been found that people often demonstrate risk preference
when faced with risky decisions, the literature mostly assumed that adversaries
are risk-neutral. This paper models a sequential attacker-defender game where
the defender allocates defensive resources to multiple targets while considering
the risk preferences of both the defender and attacker. We study the cases when
the attacker could be either non-strategic, or strategic.
2 - Game Theoretic Analysis of Secret and Reliable Communication
Melike Baykal-görsoy, Rutgers, The State University of New
Jersey, 96 Frelinghuysen Road, CoRE Building, Room 201,
Piscataway, NJ, 08854, United States of America,
Secret and reliable communication presents a challenge involving a double
dilemma for a user and an adversary. To get insight into this problem, we present
two simple stochastic games. Explicit solutions are found. In addition, we show
that under some conditions, incorporating in the transmission protocol a time slot
dealing just with the detection of malicious threats can improve the secrecy and
reliability of the communication without extra transmission delay.
3 - Optimal Cost-sharing in General Resource Selection Games
Konstantinos Kollias, Stanford University, 474 Gates Building,
353 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA, 94305, United States of America,
Tim Roughgarden, Vasilis Gkatzelis
Resource selection games provide a model for a diverse collection of applications
where a set of resources is matched to a set of demands. In reality, demands are
often selfish and congestion on the resources results in negative externalities for
their users. We consider a policy maker that can set a priori rules to minimize the
inefficiencies induced by selfish behavior and we characterize the control methods
that minimize the worst-case inefficiency of equilibria.
TC63