Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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4 - Bayesian Updating of Dirichlet Process Prior via Kernel Estimate
Ehsan Soofi, Univesity of Wisconsin, Lubar School of Business,
Milwaukee, WI, United States of America,
Neshat Beheshti, Jeffrey Racine
The standard nonparametric Bayesian approach uses multinomial proportions to
update the Dirichlet Process Prior (DPP). We use kernel-smoothed CDF instead of
the multinomial proportions for updating DPP. Applications include Bayesian
measures and inferences for distributional fit and for dependence of random
variables via the information measure of copula. The posterior mean of the
quantized entropy provides a Bayes estimate of the dependence.
TD75
75-Room 204B, CC
IBM Research Best Student Paper Award IV
Sponsor: Service Science
Sponsored Session
Chair: Ming-Hui Huang, National Taiwan University, Taiwan - ROC,
1 - Best Student Paper Competitive Presentation
Ming-Hui Huang, National Taiwan University, Taiwan - ROC,
Finalists of the IBM Research Best Student Paper Award present their research
findings in front of a panel of judges. The judging panel will decide the order of
winners, which will be announced during the business meeting of the Service
Science Section at the Annual Conference.
2 - Can Objective Early Warning Scores and Subjective Risk
Assessments Predict Patient’s Hospital Length of Stay
and Mortality?
Nasibeh Azadeh-Fard,Phd Candidate, Virginia Tech,
544 Whittemore Hall, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg VA 24061,
United States of America, , Jaime Camelio, Navid
Ghaffarzadegan
This paper presents a dynamic simulation model of patient’s health outcome and
length of stay based on initial health risk and physician’s assessment of risk.
Simulation results are empirically supported by analyzing a detailed dataset of
1,031 patients admitted to a large southeastern hospital in US.
3 - Dynamic Personalized Monitoring and Treatment Control of
Glaucoma
Pooyan Kazemian,PhD Candidate, University of Michigan-Ann
Arbor, 1205 Beal Ave., Ann Arbor MI 48105, United States of
America, , Jonathan Helm, Mariel Lavieri,
Joshua Stein, Mark Van Oyen,
We develop an innovative modeling framework for chronic disease patients to
help guide clinicians to quickly detect disease progression and adjust the
treatment plan over time to limit disease progression. The model is able to (1)
optimize the time interval between sequential monitoring tests; (2) specify the
best set of tests to take during each patient’s office visit; and (3) provide target
values for the controllable disease risk factors. Glaucoma is discussed as a case
study.
4 - Evaluating Consumer m-Health Services for Promoting Healthy
Eating: A Randomized Field Experiment
Yi-Chin Lin,CMU, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh PA 15213,
United States of America, , Vibanshu Abhishek,
Julie Downs, Rema Padman
Mobile apps have great potential to provide promising services to improve
consumers’ engagement and behaviors. Focusing on healthy eating, this study
shows that an image-based professional support greatly improves consumer
engagement and eating behaviors, while social media and a heuristic approach of
self-management might have negative effects in some occasions.
5 -Dynamic Matching in a Two-Sided Market
Yun Zhou,University of Toronto, 105 St. George Street, Toronto,
ON, Canada, Ming Hu
A two-sided market often shares a common structure that engages three parties:
the supply side, the demand side and an intermediate firm facing intertemporal
uncertainty on both supply/demand sides. We propose a general framework of
dynamically matching supply with demand of heterogenous types (with
horizontally or vertically differentiated types as special cases) by the intermediary
firm and explore the optimal and heuristic matching policies.
TD76
76-Room 204C, CC
Rare Event Simulation and Network Applications
Sponsor: Simulation
Sponsored Session
Chair: John Shortle, George Mason University, 4400 University Dr.,
MSN 4A6, Fairfax, VA, United States of America,
1 - Rare-event Simulation for Queues with Time-varying Arrivals
Ni Ma, Columbia University, 500 West 120th Street, Room 345,
New York, NY, 10027, United States of America,
, Ward Whitt
We show that the exponential tilting approach for rare-event simulation in the
GI/G/1 queue can also be applied to efficiently estimate the time-varying
periodic-steady-state probability of large delays in a Mt/GI/1 single-server queue
with periodic arrival rate function.
2 - Green Simulation Designs for Repeated Experiments
Mingbin Feng, PhD Candidate, Northwestern University, 2145
Sheridan Rd, Rm C210, Evanston, IL, 60208, United States of
America, Jeremy Staum
In many applications of simulation, such as in financial risk management,
experiments are usually repeated with similar inputs. In these cases simulation
outputs should be viewed as useful resource that should be recycled and reused to
improve the efficiency of subsequent experiments. We consider a periodic credit
risk evaluation problem in the KMV model and the numerical results show
improving accuracy over time, measured by mean squared error, as more and
more outputs are recycled.
3 - A General Golf Course Simulation Tool: Keeping Delays Down and
throughput Up
Moonsoo Choi, Columbia University, Department of Industrial
Engineering, New York, NY, 10027, United States of America,
Qi Fu, Ward Whitt
We describe a simulation tool for designing and managing golf courses. Group
play is represented by eighteen queues with precedence constraints, in series,
where the primitives are the random group playing times on each stage of a hole.
We characterize balanced courses and show the advantages over unbalanced
courses.
4 - Rare-event Simulation for Vulnerability Analysis of Power Grids
John Shortle, George Mason University, 4400 University Dr.,
MSN 4A6, Fairfax, VA, United States of America,
, Jie Xu, Chun-hung Chen
Vulnerability of a power grid can be evaluated by systematically considering
failures of individual elements and estimating the likelihood of a large-scale
blackout following these initial failures. This talk presents a method for
identifying vulnerable links by using a low-fidelity model of the power system to
guide simulation of a higher-fidelity model. Numerical examples using real power
systems are given.
TD77
77-Room 300, CC
Supply Chain Optimization
Contributed Session
Chair: Robert Russell, Professor of Operations Management,
Univ. of Tulsa, 800 S Tucker Drive, College of Business, Tulsa, OK,
74104, United States of America,
1 - A Practical Application of Large-Scale Capacitated
Facility Location
Uday Rao, Professor, OBAIS Department, College of Business,
University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, United States of
America, Amit Raturi, Maria Caridi
We study a large-scale capacitated facility location problem motivated by
interaction with a company in the US MidWest. The problem has 1000 locations
with demand seasonality, several facility types differing in capacity, fixed
installation and variable operating costs, and transportation costs depending on
transportation speed / mode selected. We present solution approaches using
mathematical programming, clustering and quick heuristics. We test sensitivity to
problem parameters.
TD75