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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
123
0
20
10
30
40
€
MWh
0
8
4
12
16
$
MMBTU
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
USA
Europe
Japan
Figure 5.70:
Evolution of gas prices in US, Europe and Japan (Source IEA WEO 2013)
Approved permits to export LNG to non-free trade agreement nations
Pending application
Figure 5.71:
LNG exporting projects in the US
(own depiction)
US: the shale gas boom and the LNG exports
1)
Until 2007 the USA was foreseen as one of the main future LNG importers. Never-
theless since the shale gas boom the gas production has followed a continuous
increase, leading gas prices in the US to levels around 4$/MMBTU, reaching
minimums down to 2 $/MMBTU. The US recoverable shale gas resources are
estimated to be 18,800bcm (recoverable resources)
2)
. The current level of produc-
tion is expected to be increased and maintained, allowing the US to become a net
exporter by 2017. The low and stable gas price in the US compared to the Asian and
European market prices, could create a strong business case for the export of LNG
to these markets. The shale gas boom has encouraged the rapid emergence of
liquefaction projects in the US, both on the western and eastern coasts. The enlarge-
ment of the Panama Canal will enable greater connection between the Atlantic and
Pacific for LNG transportation.
Despite of the high potential for LNG exports, the
American administration (DOE) has been cautious
when considering approval for export projects to coun-
tries with no free trade agreement with the US.
A significant increase in the exported volumes could
result in a price increase for the American domestic
consumers. As of September 2014, nine projects have
received the approval for the Non-FTA application,
with a total exporting capacity of around 105bcma.
1) gas prices are expressed in $/MMBTU. The prices expressed in € will depend in the €/$ exchange rate.
For the understanding of the figures below, the following approximation can be considered
(corresponding to 1 € = 1.3 $): 1 $/MMBTU = 2,62 €/MWh)
2) EIA 2013