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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
139
2015 Low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2020 Low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2025 Low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2035 Low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
National Production (NP)
Caspian area (AZ)
LNG
Norway (NO)
Russia (RU)
UGS
Algeria (DZ)
Libya (LY)
2020 High
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2025 High
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2035 High
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
\\
peak condition (1-day Design Case), the bars represent the range of use of the
sources, the lower limits are set as the use of the sources under the expensive
price configuration and UGS maximization and the upper limits are set as the
use of the sources under the cheap price configuration and UGS minimization
This analysis of import sources shows that European gas system can take very high
benefit from any source if its price decreases (the upper limit of the bar is very close
from the dot). The only cases where the maximum potential scenario of a source is
not reached are:
\\
For LNG in Design Case where the simultaneous delivery of all European
terminals at maximum daily send-out capacity is slightly limited by gas
infrastructure but Non-FID projects enable to reach a 95% load
\\
For LNG in 2035 for the Green scenario the offtake of LNG imports at the level
of the maximum supply requires the commissioning of some Non-FID projects
\\
Under the Grey Scenario the lower demand level makes more difficult the reach
of the maximum potential scenario especially:
–
–
Algerian gas in 2020 where this source are in competition with less elastic
LNG in the two directly importing countries
–
–
In 2020 the additional indigenous production under the High infrastructure
scenario (Romanian Black Sea, shale and biomethane) slightly hinders the
maximization of the largest sources (LNG and Russian gas)
The width of the bars also illustrates the flexibility in the use of each supply source.