11 / 88
Eastern Caspian
11
Environment and Security
actions, and transnational river basins, insta-
bility related to environmental degradation
can contribute to conflict development (Bae-
chler, 1999).
When discussing the importance of environ-
mental and demographic factors in modern
conflict, academic research points out that
the
loss of livelihoods
is, to a greater extent than
poverty, the common denominator for many
recent internal conflicts.
Ohlsson (2005) argues that “while poverty may
be a near-endemic condition in certain socie-
ties, loss of livelihoods marks a rapid transi-
tion from a previous stable condition of relative
welfare into a condition of poverty or destitu-
tion”.
It is the rapid process of change result-
ing in a sudden fall into poverty that creates
the potential for livelihood conflicts
. Losses of
livelihoods have many causes in the contem-
porary world, most of them being related to
job scarcity, population increase, and degra-
dation of key environmental resources.
Scarcity can arise either when the quality and
quantity of resources decreases (
supply-in-
duced scarcity
), population grows (
demand-
induced scarcity
) and/or resource access
becomes more unequal (
structural scarcity
)
(Homer-Dixon, 1999). The UN Secretary-Gen-
eral, Ban Ki-Moon, corroborated the scarcity
hypothesis during the recent Security Council
debate on the impact of climate change, say-
ing that “when resources are scarce – whether
energy, water or arable land – our fragile eco-
systems become strained, as do the coping
mechanisms of groups and individuals. This
can lead to a breakdown of established codes
of conduct, and even outright conflict”
2
.
Changes in the natural environment affect
human societies and their survival capaci-
ties. Recent reports underline the fact that
changes in climatic conditions “will over-
stretch many societies’ adaptive capacities
within the coming decades. This could result
in destabilization and violence, jeopardizing
national and international security” (WBGU,
2007:1). Such changes could exacerbate ex-
isting environmental crises such as drought,
water scarcity and soil degradation, and
intensify existing problems. Weak and frag-
ile states are more exposed to the risks in-
duced by climate change as their capacity to
adapt may be rapidly overstrained and lead
to increased instability (WBGU, 2007).
Another approach in research has been to
consider that dependence on natural re-
sources, as measured by the percentage
of GDP stemming from primary commodity
exports, increases the risk of conflict (Col-
lier et al., 2003). Recent analysis (Kahl, 2006)
shows the importance of going beyond the
abundance versus scarcity dichotomy. This
is particularly true in the case of abundant
energy resources, in high demand in national
and global markets. Hence in an increasingly
interdependent world, abundance and scar-
city of resources need to be put into their
context to understand how they become
factors of security or insecurity.
Livelihood definition
A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets
(stores, resources, claims, and access) and ac-
tivities required for a means of living.
(Chambers and Conway, 1992)