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Example: random uncertainties for target OAR

Random variation of target D

90,

e.g. random inter-observer variation

Random variation of rectum D

2cm³

e.g. random intra-/inter-fraction variation of

organ position or shape

D

2 ³

=

±

10%/fx -> observed morbidity 7.5 %

For target – differences in TCP < 0.5%

cm

(vs 7.3% model prediction)

D

2cm³

=

±

20%/fx -> observed morbidity 8.9 %

D

2cm³

=

±

30%/fx -> observed morbidity 10.5 %

Model prediction: 10.5% NTCP@ 80Gy EQD2

“Can reduction of uncertainties in cervix cancer brachytherapy potentially

improve clinical outcome?” Nesvacil et al. 2016, submitted to R&O