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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026
20–40%
<20%
<40%
10–30%
>20%
0–50GWh/d
0–80% of capacity
50–250GWh/d
250–600GWh/d
600–1100GWh/d
>1100GWh/d
<30%
80–99% of capacity
99–100% of capacity
20–40%
<20%
<40%
10–30%
>20%
0–50GWh/d
0–80% of capacity
50–250GWh/d
250–600GWh/d
600–1100GWh/d
>1100GWh/d
<30%
80–99% of capacity
99–100% of capacity
20–40%
<20%
<40%
10–30%
>20%
0–50GWh/d
0–80% of capacity
50–250GWh/d
250–600GWh/d
600–1100GWh/d
>1100GWh/d
<30%
80–99% of capacity
99–100% of capacity
20–40%
<20%
<40%
10–30%
>20%
0–50GWh/d
0–80% of capacity
50–250GWh/d
250–600GWh/d
600–1100GWh/d
>1100GWh/d
<30%
80–99% of capacity
99–100% of capacity
Figure 7.4.13:
2030 PCI Reference
Figure 7.4.15:
2030 PCI AZ max
Figure 7.4.14:
2030 PCI RU max
Figure 7.4.16:
2030 PCI LNG max
Comparing the 2020 reference case with the three maximum flow cases (RU, AZ,
LNG), in 2020, we note that:
\\
In the case of the RU max there is an important increase of flows from UA to
the central European countries which is visible up to Italy. The impact on the
Balkan route is less important, probably due to the small import needs of these
markets. We also see that under RU max case the flow from TAP to Italy is
tripled – possibly since no AZ gas is spilled over the route – and the LNG im-
ports to IT are completely displaced by cheaper gas via pipes.
\\
In the case of the AZ max it is interesting to see how the model simulates that
the flows to Italy through TAP are increased, while increased flows seem to be
firstly attracted by the eastern Balkan region.
\\
In the case of the LNG max we see an increase in the LNG flows to Italy, by
22%, but none to Greece remaining (as in the reference case) to zero LNG.
However, flows to the IGB are increased under this case. A more important
effect is seen in the flows from UA which are reduced, probably because of
LNG imports. Flow from CH to IT is doubled, from CZ to SK is increased
sevenfold and flow from DE to AT is increased by 30%. As a result the flow from
TAP to Italy is reduced to one third of the reference value.
Legend
20–40%
<20%
<40%
10–30%
>20%
0–50GWh/d
50–250GWh/d
250–600GWh/d
600–1100GWh/d
>1100GWh/d
<30%
20–40%
<20%
<40%
10–30%
>20%
0–50GWh/d
0–80% of capacity
50–250GWh/d
250–600GWh/d
600–1100GWh/d
>1100GWh/d
<30%
80–99% of capacity
99–100% of capacity