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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026 |
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Image courtesy of Snam Rete Gas
Comparing the 2030 PCI reference case, with the three max cases (RU, AZ, LNG)
we see that:
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In the case of the RU max, there is again an important increase in the flows
from UA to the central European countries which is visible up to Italy and
Germany. There is an impact in the Balkan route as well since the Russian gas
now arrives to Greece whereas in the reference case GR was supplying Bulgaria
with 95GWh/d. The flows of LNG to Italy are substantially reduced (by almost
90%) while the imports from Algeria and Libya are also affected by to a lesser
extent.
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In the case of AZ max, we see that the flows in central Europe are not affected,
while the imports to Greece from Turkey and the exports to Italy and Bulgaria
are increased. The balance in Italy is kept thanks to an equal reduction of
imports from Algeria and the balance in Bulgaria is kept due to a reverse of the
flow to Romania (from import to export of 11GWh/d)
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In the case of LNG max we still do not have any import to Greece. Imports of
LNG to Italy are increased by 33% at the expense of reduced imports from
Austria, Algeria and Libya. The effect on the flows from UA to the west also
there but less pronounced than in 2020.
Interestingly, in all the four 2030 PCI configurations reverse flows from Italy toward
Northern Europe via CH are activated, as possible combined effect of the higher gas
supply availability for Italy (Eastmed, Poseidon and additional LNG terminals) and
the backbone reinforcement of the Italian grid aimed at moving flows from south
import toward north (Adriatica line).