Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026 |
99
It should be noted that in the supply disruption analysis the cooperative approach is
followed. This means that an affected country starts supplying its neighbours even
before fully covering its own demand. This is in line with the new Security of Supply
Regulation which gives priority to the supply of “protected customers” recognised as
such by the competent NRA, regardless of the country where they are established
\\
Price: For the examination of the impact of supply sources price differences to
flows, the prices of three sources have been reduced, one at a time, by 10%
compared to the Reference price. These sources are:
Russian gas, LNG and Azeri gas
As the use of the cheaper source is maximised those cases are also referred to as
RU max, LNG max and AZ max.
The following table summarises the scenarios and the corresponding values of the
parameters used
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Year
Infrastructure level
Demand
Disruption
Price
2020
Low
AW
None
Reference
2020
Low
DC
UA
2020
Low
DC
Transmed
2030
Low
AW
None
2030
Low
DC
UA
2030
Low
DC
Transmed
2020
PCI
AW
None
2020
PCI
DC
UA
2020
PCI
DC
Transmed
2030
PCI
AW
None
2030
PCI
DC
UA
2030
PCI
DC
Transmed
FLOWS PATTERN UNDER PRICE VARIATION
Year
Infrastructure level
Demand
Disruption
Price
2020
Low
AW
None
Reference
2020
Low
RU max
2020
Low
AZ max
2020
Low
LNG max
2030
Low
Reference
2030
Low
RU max
2030
Low
AZ max
2030
Low
LNG max
2020
PCI
AW
None
Reference
2020
PCI
RU max
2020
PCI
AZ max
2020
PCI
LNG max
2030
PCI
Reference
2030
PCI
RU max
2030
PCI
AZ max
2030
PCI
LNG max
Note: In the non-disruption cases the average winter demand is considered while in
the cases with disruption the Design Case demand is considered, therefore their
results are not directly comparable.
Table 7.1:
Scenarios examined in the Assessment chapter