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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026 |
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More specifically, the results per country or group of countries in the Region are as
follows:
Bulgaria and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
In 2017, Bulgaria and FYRoM are hit hardest in case of UA disruption, with a
disruption rate of 62%. In Bulgaria disrupted demand represents 100GWh/d.
In 2020 and 2030 the situation would significantly improve although a low disrup-
tion rate would remain, mainly thanks to additional gas from IGB connected to TAP.
Bulgaria can also receive gas from Serbia via a new bidirectional interconnector.
Supply to FYRoM is considered to take place only through Bulgaria (the project for
an interconnection with Greece is not included in the infrastructure levels
considered.).
Romania
In 2017 Romania is the third most affected country in 2017 with disruption rate of
25% (DD=200GWh/d, which is twice as much as in Bulgaria).
In 2020, the situation would be significantly improved although a low disruption rate
would remain.
From 2030 onwards, Romania would face difficulties in covering its high demand
mainly due to the reduction of its national production (which alone represents more
than half of the Region’s production) in the ‘20s and even more in the ‘30s. Disrupted
rate would reach 24% (191GWh/d) in 2030 and even 41% (335GWh/d) in 2035.
Romania would be the most affected country in the region.
Serbia
In 2017 Serbia is marginally resilient to Ukrainian disruption. From 2020 the
situation would get worse and Serbia would suffer low disruption rates in 2020 and
in 2030.
Commissioning of the new interconnection Bulgaria – Serbia would allow Bulgaria to
get additional gas from Serbia in 2020. Assuming a cooperative approach between
neighbouring countries, where countries with higher resilience mitigate the disrupt-
ed rate of other countries by sharing their supplies, this will lead to disrupted de-
mand in Serbia. Serbia can receive additional gas from Hungary, as there is suffi-
cient infrastructure capacity. Consequently, the impact of this new interconnection
would spread further from Serbia to the surrounding countries (Hungary, Bosnia &
Herzegovina) thus aligning their disrupted rates.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Hungary
In 2017 these countries are able to cope with their high demands. Bosnia &
Herzegovina reaches quite high level of remaining flexibility (35%). In Croatia and
Hungary, remaining flexibility is close to 0%.
In 2020, mitigating the negative effect of disrupted demand in other countries
(cooperative approach), Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Hungary would also
face limited demand curtailment of 6%. Expansion of the interconnection Slovenia –
Croatia from 53 to 68GWh/d would slightly ease the situation in the area.
In 2030 Bosnia & Herzegovina and Hungary would experience a low increase in
their disruption rates.
In Croatia the situation would be worse due to the increased demand (2017:
182GWh/d, 2020: 216GWh/d, 2030: 257GWh/d) and declining national produc-
tion. Consequently, it would lead to higher disrupted rates (25% in 2030, 29% in
2035). Additional sources such as LNG and/or infrastructure reinforcements would
be required.