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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026
Greece
In 2017 Greece would face disrupted demand of 6%.
From 2020 onwards Greece would not be affected by Ukrainian disruption due to
the expansion of the Revythoussa LNG terminal and commissioning of TAP.
Remaining Flexibility in Greece will reach around 20% in 2020 and in 2030.
Italy, Slovenia, Austria, Slovakia
These countries would not face disrupted demand, but all of them except Slovakia
would be impacted by Ukraine disruption.
In Italy Remaining Flexibility would decrease from 35% to 20%. In Slovenia it would
decrease significantly, from 22% to 10% due to increase in domestic demand
(2017: 47GWh/d, 2020: 60GWh/d, 2030: 66GWh/d)
Austria would remain with high flexibility of 80% (100% without UA disruption).
Slovakia would not be affected and would maintain a flexibility of 100%.
Regarding the flows, in the PCI infrastructure level case, as in the previous case we
notice, that the flows in central Europe are reversed, in comparison with the “non-
disruption” case. Germany, Czech Republic, Switzerland and Austria supply gas to
Austria, Slovakia, Italy and Hungary and Slovenia respectively. Slovakia also
contributes to the supply of Ukraine. For this reason the northernmost countries of
the Region show comfortable Remaining Flexibilities while the easternmost
experience disruptions although at rather moderate rates.
The situation is without problems to the Region in 2030, when more infrastructure
is available to carry gas to the southern and western part of the Region. In particular,
the Eastmed pipeline carries 290GWh/d to Greece which are forwarded to Italy
through the Poseidon pipeline, while the increased capacity of TAP is used to carry
326GWh/d to Greece which is equally shared between Bulgaria and Italy while a
small quantity is forwarded to FYRoM.
7.3.3 TRANSMED DISRUPTION CASE
The disruption of the supply from Algeria through the Transmed pipeline does not
have an impact on the overall Region, since it remains mainly limited to Italy.
7.3.3.1 Remaining Flexibility and Flows in Transmed disruption case
The only country which sees a reduction of its Remaining Flexibility, in comparison
with the ”non-disruption” case, is Italy where this value decreases, in 2020, from
37% to 19%.
The lack of gas supplied by the Transmed is replaced by other sources available to
the Italian system, given that Italy is the country with the higher number of supply
options, therefore having a good level of source diversification.
In the Low infrastructure case, all other sources to Italy increase their flow (LNG,
Libya, Switzerland) and mainly Austria. This more than doubles the flow from
Ukraine to Slovakia and almost doubles the flow from Slovakia to Austria. Ukrainian
deliveries are also increased to Hungary and Romania. At the same time the flow of
LNG to Greece reaches 87% of its maximum capacity and TAP deliveries to Greece
reach the maximum capacity of its first phase of development.