TPT-January-2015

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Global Marketplace
January 2015 75
TEL: +86-21-31108050
FAX: +86-21-31108052
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HEAD OFFICE ADD: 10–11th Floor,
No.11 Building, No.1588, Youyi Rd.,
Baoshan District, Shanghai, China
Established in 1994, Shanghai Yueyuechao Steel Pipe Group has now been
developed into a comprehensive enterprise which is specialized in carbon steel,
low-alloy seamless and welded tubes and pipes manufacturing and exporting.
Our production range:
Seamless tubes: 1/8"~28" in OD, 1.5~50mm in WT.
LSAW pipes: 14"~56" in OD, 8~50mm in WT.
3-rolling bending plate welded pipes: 40"~158" in OD, 15.9~140mm in WT.
Gas cylinder pipe: 62~711mm in OD, 2.3~18mm in WT.
Our main certs: API/ISO/BV/DNV/ABS/LR/TUV/GL/
The calculations are by the Post Carbon Institute (Santa
Rosa, California). PCI is a think tank focused on sustainability
issues. In the report “Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check on US
Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil and Shale Gas
Boom,” PCI fellow J David Hughes analysed the production
statistics for seven tight oil basins and seven gas basins
which, respectively, account for 88 per cent and 89 per cent
of current US shale gas production.
Mr Hughes is a geoscientist who for over three decades
analysed energy resources for the Geological Survey of
Canada. His findings differ markedly from the roseate
projections published by the US Energy Information Agency
(EIA), a statistical sub-unit of the US Department of Energy
(DOE). Among the key points of his report, as summarised
by Mr Horn:
• Three-year average well-decline rates for the seven shale
oil basins measured range from an astounding 60 per cent
to 91 per cent; ie, over a given three years the amount of
oil coming out of the wells decreases by that percentage,
yielding 43 per cent to 64 per cent of the estimated ultimate
recovery achieved during the first three years.
• In terms of well productivity, four of the seven shale gas
basins are already in terminal decline.
• The three-year average well-decline rates for the seven
shale gas basins measured ranges from 74 per cent to 82
per cent.
• The average annual decline rates in the seven shale gas
basins examined equals between 23 per cent and 49 per
cent. Translation by Mr Horn: Between one-quarter and
one-half of all production in each basin must be replaced
annually just to keep “the drilling treadmill” running at the
same pace and keep getting the same amount of gas
out of the earth. (“The Uncertain Future of Shale Gas:
Report Casts Doubt on US Hydraulic Fracking Production
Numbers,” 31 October)
Mr Hughes said in a press release accompanying publication
of his report, “By asking the right questions you soon realise
that, if the future of US oil and natural gas production depends
on resources in the country’s deep shale deposits, we are in
for a big disappointment in the longer term.”
› For his part, Mr Horn of CRG noted that the shale boom
has created a revolution of sorts for corporate interests
across the supply chain: from the world of plastics to
manufacturing to the pipeline business to liquefied natural gas
(LNG) export terminals and far beyond – creating something
akin to a “complex.”
This implies confidence in a nearly infinite future for shale oil
and gas. To the executive director of the Post Carbon Institute,
Asher Miller, this is a false premise that has generated false
promises.
Dorothy Fabian, Features Editor (USA)