2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

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INFORMS Nashville – 2016
111
SD51
213-MCC
Decision-making Models for Public Health Systems
Sponsored: Public Sector OR
Sponsored Session
Chair: Chaitra Gopalappa, University of Massachusetts - Amherst, 120D
Marston Hall, 160 Governors Drive, Amherst, MA, 01003,
United States,
1 - Estimating Disease Burden Of A Potential H7N9 Pandemic
Influenza Outbreak In The United States
Walter Silva Sotillo, USF,
Recent emergence of H7N9 influenza virus in China resulted in 571 laboratory-
confirmed cases of human infections causing 212 deaths (37% fatality rate).
Researchers have developed early estimates of some of the epidemiological
parameters to characterize H7N9 virus in China. We use data from recent reports,
an agent-based simulation model and stratified sampling to estimate disease
burden of a potential H7N9 pandemic outbreak in the United States.
2 - Using The HIV Optimization And Prevention Economics (HOPE)
Model For Evaluating HIV Interventions In The United States
Emine Yaylali, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
, Paul Farnham, Stephanie Sansom,
Katherine A. Hicks, Amanda Honeycutt, Emily Tucker
The HOPE model is a detailed, dynamic compartmental model of HIV disease
progression and transmission in the United States. We parametrized and
calibrated the model to closely match the population of people living with HIV
between 2006 and 2010, to project HIV transmission into the future. The
population was stratified by age, sex, circumcision status, race/ethnicity,
transmission group, and risk level. Outcomes included HIV incidence, prevalence,
and care status. We employed the HOPE model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness
of HIV interventions and explore HIV prevention policy questions.
3 - Access-to-Medicines (ATM) Vaccine Supply Chain Design:
Astakeholder Framework
Nico Vandaele, KU Leuven, Naamsestraat 69, Leuven, 3000,
Belgium,
Catherine Jenny Decouttere, Mauro Bernuzzi, Stef Lemmens
Supply chains supportive of ATM, like vaccine supply chains, impose considerable
additional challenges on the supply chain design process. We embed the modeling
in a broader stakeholder based framework, which will substantially enhance the
societal and human impact of the ATM supply chain service delivery. Our
approach contains stakeholder mapping and system delineation, key performance
indicator development, scenario generation including modelling, scenario ranking
and final design selection.
4 - A Methodology For Parameterization Of State-transitions For
Cancer Progression In Populations With Limited Longitudinal
Cancer Database
Chaitra Gopalappa, University of Massachusetts, Amherst,
, Carel Pretorius, Jeremy Lauer
Economic analyses of cancer screening strategies specific to populations in low
and middle income countries (LMICs) are limited. Barriers include absence of
cancer progression models parameterized specific to these populations. This study
addresses this gap.
SD52
214-MCC
Public Sector OR Problems with
Geographic Considerations
Sponsored: Public Sector OR
Sponsored Session
Chair: Ronald G McGarvey, University of Missouri, E3437D Lafferre
Hall, Columbia, MO, 65211, United States,
1 - Dynamic Decision Modeling For Inland Waterway Disruptions
Rachel Holmer, University of Arkansas, ,
Hueon Lee, Mahboubeh Madadi, Shengfan Zhang,
Heather Nachtmann
There is much uncertainty associated with inland waterway transportation.
Natural or man-made disruption on the inland waterway system can have
widespread economic and societal impacts, and their consequences can be
significant. In this research, a Markov decision process model was developed to
identify optimal decisions in the event of a weather-related disruption to
minimize the barge owner’s loss, incorporating the uncertainty associated with
the reopening of the waterway and deteriorating value of the cargo. Historical
lock and dam unavailability data and related weather data were collected and
analyzed to build a prediction model on lock and dam closure and reopening.
2 - Identifying Optimal Multi-state Collaborations For Reducing Co2
Emissions By Co-firing Biomass In Coal-burning Power Plants
Bayram Dundar, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, 65201-
3738, United States,
Ronald McGarvey, Francisco X Aguilar
EPA has recently proposed a rule that aims to achieve a total US carbon emission
reduction of 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. An increase in co-firing
woody biomass with coal is one approach electricity providers could take towards
achieving these reductions. We develop a mixed integer linear programming
model to identify min-cost approaches for reducing carbon emissions via biomass
co-firing subject to spatially-explicit biomass availability constraints, utilizing a
robust optimization approach to address uncertainties in power plant modification
costs and emission rates. We apply this model to a set of 18 states in the northern
US to identify optimal sets of multi-state collaborations.
3 - Estimates Of Successful Illegal Entry Across The U.S. Southwest
Land Border
Brian Rieksts, Institute for Defense Analyses,
We present a methodology to estimate successful illegal entry across the United
States southwest land border. A repeated trials model based on repeated
apprehensions was used to estimate these flows. Both administrative data and
survey data were evaluated and used to construct these estimates.
4 - A Robust Optimization Evaluation Of The Potential For Reliance
On Locally-produced Foods
Ronald G. McGarvey, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO,
United States, , Bayram Dundar,
Christine Costello
Strategies focused on local food production may generate new risks due to yield
variability. We develop a robust optimization (RO) model to determine, for a
given center C, the minimum radius R of a circle containing sufficient cropland
and pasture to produce food items that satisfy the calorie and nutrient needs of
the population residing within distance R of any point within that circle. We first
run the model using historical yield averages for two US cities, assuming no
variability. We then run our RO model using historical yield data over ten years to
estimate variability. We compare the two model results to illustrate the impact of
data uncertainty on meeting sustainable local food for communities.
SD53
Music Row 1- Omni
Organizational Innovation
Sponsored: Technology, Innovation Management &
Entrepreneurship
Sponsored Session
Chair: Sinan Erzurumlu, Babson College, 231 Forest St, Brookline, MA,
02457, United States,
1 - Business Start-up Operations
Nitin Joglekar, Boston University School of Management,
Evidence on operational innovations (OI), based on connectivity based analytics
and low cost intelligent robotics, points to the co-evolution between business
models and OI. We argue that this evolution offers opportunities to develop new
types of decision support models.
2 - Communication, Incentives, And The Execution Of A
Strategic Initiative
Jeremy Hutchison-Krupat, University of Virginia,
Senior leadership can influence a direct report through incentives and
communication. Financial incentives are credible and precisely specified, but offer
limited flexibility, whereas communication is flexible, but lacks precision and
must be deemed credible to affect a direct report’s actions. We study senior
leadership who seeks to add an initiative to their portfolio. Early on, its potential
to create value is not well-understood, however, senior leadership eventually
obtains knowledge on its potential which they may communicate to their direct
report.
3 - Relationship-specific Agreements Between The Service Provider
And The Firm In The Gig Economy
Sinan Erzurumlu, Babson College,
Jonathan Sims
In this research we explore the interactions between the service providers and the
firm in the gig economy. We analyze survey data to understand the relationship-
specific norms and agreements between the service provider and the firm through
the lens of psychological contracting.
SD53