2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

426 / 561

INFORMS Nashville – 2016
426
2 - A Multi-level Approach To Network Attack Graph Interdiction
David Joseph Myers, Research Engineer, Air Force Research
Laboratory, AFRL/RISB, Attn: David Myers, Rome, NY,
13441-4505, United States,
Attackers have a distinct advantage in the cyber domain, having unlimited time to
perform reconnaissance on an enterprise system. A key component of the
defender’s ability to protect their system is a situational awareness about the
system attack graph. The defender’s goal is to minimize the potential damage
through the exploitation of vulnerabilities. This presentation will explore the
development of these attack graphs, and then the consideration of three
approaches to interdicting this graph.
3 - Evaluating Basing Options For Optimizing Accessibility For Global
Response Force
Jeremy Eckhause, Operations Researcher, RAND Corporation,
1200 S. Hayes St., Arlington, VA, 22202, United States,
, Katharina Ley Best, Christopher Pernin,
Michael Schwille, Katherine Pfrommer
For a global response force to achieve its mandate, rapid access to almost any
point on the globe is essential. Since the long-term presence of the US is difficult
to predict, using of a set of intermediate bases may be required for establishing
fast and sustainable access to large numbers of contingency locations. We present
an approach and results for identifying a robust set of intermediate bases for
ensuring global access and a methodology for identifying new bases as
infrastructure requirements change.
4 - Predicting Future World Conflict Using Factor Sample Paths
Darryl K Ahner, Air Force Institute of Technology,
135 Eastwick Court, Dayton, OH, 45440-3647, United States,
, Nicholas Jerred Shallcross
The prediction and forecasting of nation conflict is of vital importance. This paper
discusses the formulation and construction of a suite of region-specific conditional
logistic regression models that predict nation-state transitions into and out of
violent conflict. This approach allows for the accurate modeling of complex
regional environments with parsimonious and operationally interpretable models.
The conditional logistic regression models proposed in this study achieve conflict
transition prediction accuracies of 84.67% for 182 of the world’s nations. Several
predictor variable paths are explored and their effect on probability of nations
being in a state of conflict are analyzed.
5 - Assignment Of UAVs To Search And Communication Roles
Michael Atkinson, Naval Postgraduate School, 1411 Cunningham
Road, Building 302, Monterey, CA, 93943-5219, United States,
Ezra Akin, Kevin D Glazebrook
Once a search UAV detects a target, the UAV must transmit the target’s position to
a shooter who will fire on the target. If the shooter is far away from the search
area in a communication-degraded scenario, we may need several
communication UAVs in intermediate positions to relay the message from the
search UAV to the shooter. We examine the assignment of UAVs to tasks in real-
time. On one hand we want as many UAVs searching so they can quickly detect
as many targets as possible. On the other hand we need a sufficient number of
communication UAVs to ensure a robust communication network. We formulate
an MDP that provides optimal solutions for small problems and develop heuristics
to use on larger problems.
WB89
Broadway C-Omni
Maritime Transportation
Sponsored: TSL, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
Sponsored Session
Chair: Harilaos Psaraftis, Technical University of Denmark, Department
of Transport, Lyngby, 2800, Denmark,
Co-Chair: Dario Pacino, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark,
1 - The Ship Loading Problem With Straddle Carrier Assignment
And Scheduling
Dario Pacino, Technical University of Denmark, Ostrigsgade 28,
Copenhagen, Denmark,
The maritime shipping sector is under pressure to provide reliable and cheap
services. Operations research techniques have caught the interest of the industry
as can be seen from the increasing number of publications in e.g. liner shipping
network design and terminal optimization. In this paper we proposed the Ship
Loading Problem, a novel collaboration approach to integrate shipping line and
container terminal cost optimizations. We present a novel mathematical
formulation and a heuristic approach which demonstrates the benefits of this
collaboration.
2 - Containership Deployment On A Liner Service
Shuaian Wang, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Department of
Logistics and Maritime Studies, Hong Kong, China,
This study proposes an important ship voyage management problem (SVMP) that
aims to minimize the bunker fuel consumption of a containership. To address the
SVMP, we first develop a tailored method to build two robust artificial neural
network (ANN) models using ship voyage report data to quantify the synergetic
influence of sailing speed, displacement, trim, and weather/sea conditions on ship
fuel efficiency. We proceed to put forward three viable solution countermeasures
for the SVMP by means of dynamic programming and simulation-based
optimization techniques.
3 - A Metaheuristic For a Multi-product Maritime Inventory
Routing Problem
Marielle Christiansen, Norwegian University of Science &
Technology, Industrial Economics & Technology Mgmt,
Trondheim, Norway,
We consider a multi-product maritime inventory routing problem where an actor
is responsible for both the inventory management of the various products at the
ports and the ships’ routing and scheduling. In addition, we take the allocation of
products to undedicated compartments into account. A mixed integer
programming model is formulated, and it can be solved to optimality for small
instances only. A matheuristic, exploiting the two sub sets of constraints related to
the routing and inventory management, is developed. The computational study
shows promising results for the matheuristic.
WB90
Broadway D-Omni
Health Care, Modeling XIII
Contributed Session
Chair: Masoud Kamalahmadi, Doctoral Student, Indiana University,
1309 E Tenth St, Bloomington, IN, 47405, United States,
1 - Inventory Policies For Platelet Management At Hospitals Under
Demand Uncertainty
Suchithra Rajendran, PhD Candidate and Research Assistant, The
Pennsylvania State University, 310 Leonhard Building, University
Park, PA, 16802, United States,
Arunachalam Ravindran
Demand uncertainty at hospitals leads to a significant wastage of blood platelets.
Hence, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming (SMILP) model is
developed with the objective of minimizing platelet wastage and shortage. Due to
the complexity of the SMILP, five different heuristic approaches are developed
using historical data such as mean and variance of platelet demand. Real-life data
from a Regional Medical Center is used to evaluate the different methods. In
addition, sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the robustness of the
proposed heuristics. The results indicate that the heuristic approaches on average,
provide a solution within a gap of 10% from the optimal solution.
2 - An Optimization Framework To Improve Patient Safety In
Radiation Therapy
Pegah Pooya, PhD Candidate, North Carolina State University,
304 Ravenstone drive, Raleigh, NC, 27518, United States,
, Osman Ozaltin, Julie Ivy, Lukasz Mazur,
Lawrence Marks, Katharin Deschesne, Prithima Mosaly,
Gregg Tracton
The use of safety barriers (SB) in radiation therapy (RT) is a widely recognized
method for detecting potential human and non-human errors before they reach
patients. We develop an optimization framework to determine the reliable design
of SBs to improve patient safety considering SB implementation costs.
3 - A Theoretical Agent-based Framework To Evaluate The
Anticompetitive Implications Of Accountable Care Organizations
Abdullah Alibrahim, PhD Candidate, University of Southern
California, 344 Hauser Blvd Apt 219, Los Angeles, CA, 90036,
United States, , Shinyi Wu
In the wake of Affordable Care Act, two initiatives have seemingly counteracting
effects. Market share shifts due to coordinating healthcare provision (Accountable
Care Organizations -ACOs) might negate the effects of concentrating purchasing
for care and coverage (Health Exchanges). This study justifies characterizing
healthcare markets as a complex adaptive system and outlines a framework to
assess competitive implications of ACOs in private healthcare markets. The
theoretical, structural, behavioral, and iterative relationships of the system are
outlined. An agent-based simulation model will then be used to assess
competitive effects of ACOs to inform antitrust policies.
WB89