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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Belarus transit disruption
Under a Belarus transit disruption, in the short-term, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia
experience a decreased remaining flexibility. The Lithuanian Klaipėda LNG FSRU is
currently in operation. However, from 2025 it is not considered anymore in the low
infrastructure level, reflecting the expiration of the FSRU time charter party (leasing
agreement) by then
1)
, and the fact that the operator has not yet taken a decision
about possibly purchasing the FSRU
2)
. This leaves the Baltic States without access
to LNG. A Belarus transit disruption would therefore cause Lithuania to curtail more
than 50% of its demand, and Latvia to face limited demand curtailment. In addition,
Poland and Estonia face a risk of demand disruption from 2025 onwards in the Blue
Transition scenario. This indicates an investment need in Poland and the Baltic
States to increase the resilience towards a Belarus transit disruption, though this
need may depend on the scenario.
1) See Annex D, Sheet “Capacity changes”
2) The Klaip
ė
da LNG terminal continued operation is considered in the high infrastructure level
BY disruption
Blue Transition
2020 Low
BY disruption
Blue Transition
2030 Low
BY disruption
EU Green Revolution
2020 Low
BY disruption
EU Green Revolution
2030 Low
0%
20%
100%
0%
20%
100%
50%
Remaining Flexibility
Disrupted Demand
Figure 6.5:
Disrupted Rate and Remaining Flexibility under Belarus route disruption,
EU Green Revolution and Blue Transition, DC, Low infrastructure level