187 / 288
UA disruption
Blue Transition
2017 Low
UA disruption
Blue Transition
2020 Low
UA disruption
Blue Transition
2030 Low
UA disruption
EU Green Revolution
2017 Low
UA disruption
EU Green Revolution
2030 Low
UA disruption
EU Green Revolution
2020 Low
0%
20%
100%
0%
20%
100%
50%
Remaining Flexibility
Disrupted Demand
Figure 6.6:
Disrupted Rate and Remaining Flexibility under Ukrainian route disruption, EU Green Revolution and Blue Transition, DC,
Low infrastructure level. Some countries like Croatia are not additionally influenced by the Route Disruption but keep the same results
already explained in the previous chapter 6.3.2.2 (normal situation).
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report |
187
Ukraine transit disruption
The Ukrainian transit disruption case shows a poten-
tial demand disruption in Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, FYROM and
Serbia. Infrastructure gaps can be observed between
these countries and the surrounding EU countries.
Additionally, such disruption has an impact for re-
maining flexibility in South-East Europe and Poland.
The situation improves from 2017 to 2020 following
the commissioning of projects. Greece is not affected
anymore by a Ukrainian route disruption thanks to the
expansion of the Revythoussa LNG terminal. Bulgaria
receives additional gas through the TAP and IGB con-
nection and can share demand disruption with the
surrounding countries thanks to the increased capac-
ity from Serbia resulting from the commissioning of the
Interconnection Bulgaria Serbia.
The Ukrainian route disruption impacts South-East
Europe in 2030 for all demand scenarios whereas
Western Europe and Greece remain with a high flexi-
bility. The surrounding countries with high remaining
flexibility are reaching a limitation for sending more
gas to the South-East region of Europe. In addition, in
the Blue Transition scenario, Poland has a very low
remaining flexibility (2%).