ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report |

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6.3.3.4 EU Bill and monetisation on country level

This section analyses how the EU Bill evolves for contrasted supply configurations

and how this translates at country-level based on the information derived from the

supply dependence and diversification indicators presented in previous sections of

this assessment.

EU Bill

The main component of the EU Bill is the supply price

. The extra-EU supply sourc-

es have a price curve around the Reference price of the respective scenario in the

respective year

. The Reference price per scenario and time horizon has been set

using price information from IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 and is detailed in the

Demand chapter.

For the purpose of maximising and minimising supply flows from individual sources

in order to assess extreme transportation potentials of the grid a standardised

approach has been defined. For the minimisation and maximisation of supplies the

price curves of these supplies are set higher or lower by an arbitrary spread of

5€/MWh making this supply the least or the most attractive extra-EU gas source.

Additionally the standardised approach assumes that the import price of any given

source is the same whatever the import point. In the assessment, indigenous

production is set as the preferred supply source by having a price 7€/MWh below

the reference price, ensuring it is preferred even over the most attractive extra-EU

source

Differences in the EU Bill between years are mainly caused by the price assump-

tions. It is not the expectation that the Reference price or arbitrary price spread

retained will materialise in reality, or that prices determined at internal EU hubs by

the modelling can fully reflect internal demand and supply drivers. ENTSOG is aware

that the actual development of prices is so volatile that the source used for the

Reference price is probably already outdated at the time of publication of the TYNDP

report and there are new forecasts available.

Yet the respective supply volumes for the contrasted supply configurations analysed

are independent from the price assumptions.

The following supply configurations were analysed:

Balanced (balanced shares of the different supply sources – same price curve

for all sources)

Russian gas maximised (low Russian price)

Russian gas minimised (high Russian price)

LNG maximised (low LNG price)

LNG minimised (high LNG price)

Azeri gas maximised (low Azeri price)

1) Other components of the EU Bill are technical weights for the transportation costs and the LNG infrastructure cost.

These infrastructure costs only represent a very limited share of the supply costs. See Annex F for more information.

2) For details on how the price curves are determined, see Annex F.

3) For further details about the modelling, see Annex F.