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Table 6.3:
EU Bill results in the Green Evolution scenario (million €/d)
In all cases the modelling optimises the EU Bill by making the best possible use of
the supply sources, depending on their respective price. The results for the EU bill
in the Green Evolution scenario in the years 2017, 2020 and 2030 for the relevant
price configurations are shown in the table below.
EU BILL RESULTS IN THE GREEN EVOLUTION SCENARIO
(MILLION €/d)
2017
2020
2030
BALANCED (REFERENCE CASE)
257.9
228.8
302.7
AZ MAXIMISATION
–*
–
- 1.5
LNG MAXIMISATION
- 10.3
- 13.7
- 21.3
LNG MINIMISATION
+ 5.8
+ 5.4
+ 6.2
RU MAXIMISATION
- 23.4
- 26.4
- 28.9
RU MINIMISATION
+ 17.8
+ 18.2
+ 12.9
*Not relevant since there is no Azeri supply in 2017 and only low volumes during the ramp-up in 2020
This table illustrates that individual project costs represent a very small proportion
of supply costs. It also shows that the flexibility of the gas infrastructure and
diversification allows for huge benefits in terms of optimising the supply mix. The
asymmetric results obtained for maximisation and minimisation of a given source
demonstrate the value of supply diversification in mitigating the impact of the high
price of a source on the supply bill.
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