ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report

6.3.3.3 Import Route Diversification

The Import Route Diversification indicator (IRD) is capacity-based

. It focuses on

how balanced the import capacity of a given country is. For example, a country is

better diversified from an import infrastructure perspective, if its entry capacity is

equally split between four borders rather than having one predominant. The indica-

tor formula is similar to a Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index (HHI) and hence, the lower

the value, the better the diversification.

There is no obvious threshold for this indicator, hence three ranges have been

defined from a theoretical behaviour of the indicator. The highest possible value of

the indicator is 10,000 for a country with one single entry point representing 100%.

A country with two supply sources with equal entry capacity shares would have an

IRD of 5,000 while a country with three supply sources with equal entry capacity

shares would have an IRD of 3,333.

The results of the IRD indicator are independent from the scenarios. As the majori-

ty of the FID projects are expected to be commissioned by 2020, this time horizon

has been selected to illustrate the results.

The results of the IRD show a contrasted route diversification potential among

countries. For countries with a high transit, the IRD can show under-diversification,

because the import capacity of the transit source is outweighing the other entries.

These cases occur mainly in Slovakia and Czech Republic.

In instances where several physical connection points are handled as one Virtual

Interconnection Point, these points are handled as one for the purpose of the calcu-

lation of this indicator. The physical import diversification would therefore be higher

than the actual indicator result. Also the GLE analysis in section 6.3.2 in the supply

chapter regarding the contribution of LNG to diversification should be taken into

consideration for the proper understanding of this indicator.

1) It is based on capacities (which are an input to the TYNDP modelling) and not on outputs of the modelling.

Import price spread configuration, whole year,

Advanced infrastructure level, EU Green Revolution

-10 – -1

-1 – 1

1 – 2

2 – 3

3 – 5

5 – 10

Import Route Diversification

Low 2020

Import Route Diversification, Low infrastructure Level

2,000

5,000

10,000

3,300

7,700

Figure 6.20:

Import Route Diversification, Low infrastructure level