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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Figure 6.16:
European level supply and demand adequacy with no supply from Russia
0
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
6,000
7,000
TWh/y
0
500
400
300
200
100
600
700
bcma
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035 2037
National Production + Biomethane
Maximum Supply Potential
Minimum Supply Potential
Demand EU Green Revolution + Exports
Demand Blue Transition + Exports
Demand Green Evolution + Exports
Russian supply
The results of the CSSD indicator for Russian supply show dependence for all of
Europe on Russian gas. Nevertheless, at EU level, the gas infrastructure allows
accessing the maximum supply potential of all other sources. This indicates that the
European-level situation is purely a supply gap, reflecting that Europe relies on a
minimum share of Russian gas to achieve its supply and demand balance. The in-
creasing flexibility on other sources over time reduces accordingly the dependence
to Russian gas. Yet, some country-level limitations exist and are detailed below.
At country-level, the dependence can be shared equally within most of Europe. This
even level of Russian dependence reflects the overall EU-level dependence and
should be understood as the infrastructure allowing the evenly distribution of other
sources, as a whole, among those countries. The results should be interpreted
accordingly. These results reflect the assumptions applied in the TYNDP and the
cooperative approach between the EU countries.
Still some areas show higher dependence. In the Baltics and Finland this results
from their isolation. In 2017 in South-Eastern Europe, Bulgaria and FYROM higher
dependence, as well as Romania lower dependence related to its national produc-
tion, reveal infrastructure limitation between these countries and their neighbours.
From 2020 the wider sharing of the dependence in this region relates to the foreseen
commissioning of a number of projects in the region (TAP, Interconnector Greece-
Bulgaria, Interconnector Bulgaria-Serbia), but the isolation of Romania remains.
Over time the increased LNG supply potential mitigates the results. In the longer-
term perspective, infrastructure limitations can be observed in the countries in Cen-
tral-Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia) result-
ing in increased dependence compared to 2020. The Baltic States increased
dependence in 2030 relates, as mentioned earlier in the chapter, to the Klaipėda
LNG FSRU not being considered anymore in the low infrastructure level from 2025,
reflecting the expiration of the FSRU leasing agreement. Infrastructure limitations
prevent the Baltic States from mitigating the situation. Within the other countries,
marginal changes in CSSD are seen.