Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
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4 - Two-stage Stochastic Programming for Adaptive Interdisciplinary
Pain Management
Gazi Iqbal, University of Texas Arlington, P.O. Box 19017,
Arlington, TX, 76019, United States of America,
Jay Rosenberger, Victoria Chen,
Robert Gatchel, Na Wang
This research uses a two-stage stochastic programming method to optimize
personal adaptive treatment strategies to improve current and future pain
outcomes. A piecewise linear approximation method is developed to approximate
non-convex quadratic functions. Equivalent deterministic mixed integer linear
programs are developed to optimize treatment strategies for patients.
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34-Room 411, Marriott
Design and Analysis of Adaptive Health Interventions
Sponsor: Health Applications
Sponsored Session
Chair: Diana Negoescu, Assistant Professor, University of Minnesota,
111 Church St. SE, Minneapolis, MN, United States of America,
1 - Optimal Timing of Drug Sensitivity Testing for Patients on 1st-line
Tuberculosis Treatment in India
Sze Suen, Stanford University, 117 Encina Commons, Stanford,
CA, 94305, United States of America,
We seek to determine the optimal time to administer drug sensitivity testing
(DST) for first-line tuberculosis treatment patients in India to improve health
outcomes and reduce costs. Using a POMDP model, we find that India should
revise the protocol to provide DST during the first month of treatment in areas of
average or high MDR TB prevalence and transmission, and may wish to consider
individually tailored DST regimens in low transmission, low MDR prevalence
areas to reduce financial costs.
2 - Cost-effectiveness of Hiv Preexposure Prophylaxis for Injection
Drug Users in the United States
Cora Bernard, Stanford University, Department of Management
Science and Eng, Huang Engineering Center, Stanford, CA,
94305, United States of America, ,
Eran Bendavid, Margaret L. Brandeau, Keith Humphreys,
Mark Holodniy, Christopher Weyant, Douglas K. Owens,
Jeremy D. Goldhaber-fiebert
Recent CDC guidelines recommend HIV preexposure chemoprophylaxis (PrEP)
for adults who are active injection drug users (IDUs) in the US. However, the
potential population health benefits and costs of this policy remain unclear. We
developed a dynamic HIV epidemic model to evaluate oral PrEP (Truvada) for
IDUs in the US. We find that PrEP for IDUs can provide substantial health benefits
for the entire US population, but at the current cost of Truvada is a very
expensive intervention.
3 - Diagnostic Sequences for Evaluating Post-stroke Atrial
Fibrillation: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis
Sepehr Nemati, Postdoctoral Fellow, Ivey School of Business,
University of Western Ontario, 1255 Western Road London,
London, Canada, Lauren Cipriano,
Luciano Sposato
Patients with atrial fibrillation and a history of stroke are at higher risk of stroke.
It has been shown that sequentially combining cardiac monitoring methods might
detect atrial fibrillation in nearly a quarter of patients with stroke or transient
ischemic attack. However, the cost-effectiveness of these strategies remains
unknown. We propose a decision analytic model to evaluate the costs, benefits,
and cost-effectiveness of various post-stroke atrial fibrillation diagnostic strategies.
4 - Analysis of Electronic Health Record Based Depression Trajectory
and Monitoring
Ying Lin, University of Washington, Box 352650, Seattle, WA,
98195-2650, United States of America, ,
Shuai Huang, Shan Liu
Depression is a common, complex and dynamic mental disorder. We established a
trajectory-based framework for depression diagnosis/prognosis adaptable to
population heterogeneity using electronic health record data. We analyzed
patterns in the depression trajectories of a treatment population and proactively
probed new trajectories for monitoring treatment outcomes. A five-group
trajectory pattern was found using clustering, recursive partitioning, and
collaborative degradation model.
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35-Room 412, Marriott
OR and Homeland Security: Social and
Organizational Concerns
Sponsor: Public Sector OR
Sponsored Session
Chair: Paul Kantor, Prof, Rutgers, 96 Frelinghuysen Dr, Piscataway, NJ,
United States of America,
1 - Is Secure and Usable Smartphone Authentication
Asking too Much?
Janne Lindqvist, Rutgers, 96 Frelinghuysen Dr, Piscataway NJ,
Smartphones are a convenience, but they present also considerable security and
privacy risks. Using your smartphone gives access to snapshots of your whole life.
In this talk, we will discuss smartphone user authentication issues and solutions.
This talk is based on work published in IEEE Computer May 2015, (w/ Dr.
Alexander De Luca), IEEE Pervasive Computing Jan/Mar 2015 (w/ Gradeigh D.
Clark), and other published works by Dr. Lindqvist’s group on usable and secure
authentication.
2 - Vertical Data Integration for Homeland Security:
The Moynihan Principle
Paul Kantor, Prof, Rutgers, 96 Frelinghuysen Dr, Piscataway, NJ,
United States of America,
The disparate parts of DHS have complex legacy information systems. To achieve
full potential decision makers at every level need access to the data, and they
must have confidence that it is the same data that their subordinates and their
superiors are seeing. While technically possible, this is a disruptive departure from
the hierarchical and stovepiped systems that are in place now. We discuss some
technical and cultural challenges that hinder the development of such a much-
needed system.
3 - Fusing Disparate Threat Reports
John Hollywood, Senior Operations Researcher, RAND
Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA, 22202,
United States of America,
We discuss a nonlinear programming approach to fusing disparate, including
openly conflicting, intelligence reports about a potential threat. The method yields
estimates of threat level probabilities that are as conservative (i.e., uncertain, in
an information-theoretic sense) as possible given what has been reported about a
subject. It may be implemented using off-the-shelf Microsoft Excel Solver, which
is important for operations centers that typically lack high-end solvers.
4 - The Challenge of Maritime Cyber Security
Fred Roberts, CCICADA, 96 Frelinghuysen Rd, Piscataway, NJ,
United States of America,
The vulnerabilities to cyber attacks of today’s marine transportation system have
not been well studied. This paper explores vulnerabilities of shipboard systems, oil
rigs, cargo, and port operations and explores some suggested remedies.
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36-Room 413, Marriott
Threats to Life and Limb
Sponsor: Public Sector OR
Sponsored Session
Chair: Arnold I Barnett, Professor, MIT, E62-568, MIT, Cambridge, MA,
02139, United States of America,
1 - Insights from Anomalies in the Age-crime Curves for Homicide
Alfred Blumstein, University Professor, Heinz College, Carnegie
Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA, 15213,
United States of America,
The age-crime curve is the age-specific ratio of arrests to population [A(a)/N(a)]
that rises quickly to a peak at about age 18 and then declines more slowly. This
curve displayed a particularly anomalous pattern between 1985 and 1993,
thereby suggesting some distinctive activity during that period. The insights by
looking at features of those changes provided strong indications of the factors
contributing to the homicide growth during that period.
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