ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017

South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |

3.3 Demand Forecast

This section reports the results of the demand forecasts for the period 2017-2037,

based on the data gathered by ENTSOG for TYNDP 2017 purposes. Estimates on

the demand for the next twenty years have been produced by the relevant TSOs, for

both the yearly demand and the peak demand, according to four different scenari-

os:

Slow Progression

The economic growth is limited in this scenario. Green ambitions are the lowest

and so the energy generation mix stays generally the same as today.

Blue Transition

This scenario shows efficient achievement in terms of green ambitions under a

context of moderate economic growth.

Green Evolution

This scenario is characterised by favourable economic conditions and high

green ambitions with high RES development.

European Green Revolution

The storyline for the Green Revolution scenario is largely based on the same

assumptions as Green Evolution, however the EU 2050 climate targets are

reached earlier.

ECONOMIC GROWTH

GREEN AMBITION

SLOW

PROGRESSION

BLUE

TRANSITION

GREEN

EVOLUTION

EU GREEN

REVOLUTION

Figure 3.12:

ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 scenario storylines (Source: ENTSOG TYNDP 2017)

These scenarios have been defined by ENTSOG

and depend mainly on the

relationship between the evolution of the economic growth within the EU and the

development and implementation of green practices, thus giving ENTSOG the

reasonable extremes within which to assess the existing and future European gas

system infrastructure.

2) For a full description of each scenario, see the following link: