36 / 124
36 |
South-North Corridor GRIP 2017
Each scenario foresees a different role for natural gas in the various sectors
(i. e. heating, transport, industry and power generation), with consequently a
different expected evolution of the EU overall demand for the four storylines, as
illustrated in the graph in Figure 3.13 for the whole EU-28 area and for the countries
of the South-North Corridor.
At European level, the EU Green Revolution scenario envisages a decrease in terms
of total demand while the Slow Progression and Green Evolution scenarios foresee a
general stable evolution. The Blue Transition storyline on the other hand is the only
scenario predicting a moderate increase in natural gas demand in the coming years,
mainly driven by the utilisation of this energy source both in substitution of other
more carbon-intensive fuels and as an ideal partner for renewable energy sources
(RES) full development.
For the countries of the South-North Corridor, according to all the scenarios a
general stability in gas demand is expected over the next two decades, with a positive
growth rate only for the Blue Transition scenario, and a slightly negative trend for the
other scenarios.
The Blue Transition scenario, as defined by ENTSOG, assumes conditions of
moderate economic growth for the near future, with a relevant development of RES
and with the presence of policies at European level that will allow to be substantially
on track with carbon targets set by the European Commission.
The adoption of the estimates included in the Blue Transition scenario has been
considered as the most appropriate choice for the purposes of this publication as a
reference to guarantee the adequacy of the infrastructure basis also in the future
years, therefore all the estimates reported in the following paragraphs have been
calculated accordingly to the assumptions summarised above.
0
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
TWh/y
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Green Evolution – EU28
Green Revolution – EU28
Slow Progression – EU28
Blue Transition – EU28
Green Evolution – SNC Region
Blue Transition – SNC Region
Slow Progression – SNC Region
Green Revolution – SNC Region
Total annual demand
Figure 3.13:
Evolution of total demand between 2017 and 2037 for EU-28 and South-North Corridor countries according to different
scenarios (Source: projection based on data from TSOs collected by ENTSOG)