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potential of hydropower (MoENRP 2015). The flow
of three trans-boundary river basins also used for
hydropower – Alazani (Gamik), Khrami-Debed and
Aghstev basins – is likely to decline due to declining
precipitation and increased temperatures by the
end of the century (UNDP 2011). Reduced water
availability and increasing temperatures may also
have adverse effects on thermal and nuclear power
that need water for cooling (WB 2009).
Additional stress factors in the energy sector are
the expected increase in frequency and severity of
Energy
Primary energy supplies in the three countries vary
according to their access to fossil fuels and water
resources.
16
Georgia relies on imported gas and oil, but
also have renewable energy such as hydropower for
electricity and heating, whileAzerbaijan
17
reliesmainly
on its gas and oil resources. Armenia
18
uses a mix of
imported gas resources, nuclear energy and national
water resources (IEA 2013). As such, the vulnerability
of the energy sector to climate change varies depends
on the main energy source in each country.
Hydropower is by far the most vulnerable energy
source due to its dependency on stable water
supplies that are likely to be affected by changes in
precipitation patterns, reduced glacial water, and
higher evaporation due to warmer temperatures.
Water resources are predicted to decline across the
region. Hydropower in Georgia is, for example,
centred on glacier-fed rivers originating in the
Greater Caucasus Mountains, such as the Inguri
and Rioni River. Glacial runoff of these rivers
is likely to be reduced by 13 per cent by 2100 due
to increased melting consequently reducing the
Inguri Dam, Georgia