Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

The lack of research and available information may

be a reflection of the current political focus. Since

the three countries gained their independence,

many issues have required the focus of politicians

such as securing a stable economy, reducing poverty

and preventing corruption. Contamination from

industrial sites and the influence of climate change

have not been a priority but attention on this issue

is increasing (UNEP/ENVSEC 2014; UNECE 2010;

USGS 2014).

Tourism

Climate change has already started to affect the

tourism sector around the world. The World Tourism

Organization recognizes mountain tourism as being

especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Tourism is affected directly through the potential

degradation of infrastructure due to events such as

floods and erosion. In addition to these are various

indirect impacts of climate change, including the

changes to the food and water supply (UNWTO 2015).

Tourism in the South Caucasus is a growing sector

that is of increasing importance to the national

economies of the three countries. Georgia has

the most developed tourism sector, followed by

Armenia and Azerbaijan. In 2015, tourism and

travel contributed 20 per cent, 12.7 per cent and

8.4 per cent to the economies of Georgia, Armenia,

and Azerbaijan, respectively (WTTC 2015 a,b).

The mountain areas are popular destinations and

comparable to other tourism destinations such as

beaches and lakeside resorts.

At the mountain destinations, tourists are offered a

wide variety of activities includingmountain climbing,

hiking, rafting, winter sports, national parks, bird

watching, and cultural heritage sites. Eco-tourism

and agro-tourism are also becoming more popular.

Due to the vulnerability of mountain areas to climate

change, mountain tourism is likely to be affected by

the predicted increase in temperature, changes to

precipitation patterns, and natural disasters. It will

also lead to changes in ecosystems and biodiversity

(e.g. changing patterns in bird migration, changes

to the quantity and quality of snow) that can have

adverse impacts on tourism (MoENRP 2015; Green

Georgia 2015b;

Azerbaijans.com

2015; Welcome

Armenia 2015). The most popular alpine ski resorts

in Bakuriani and Gudauri in Georgia are already

affected by shorter winter seasons with less snow. The

tourism industry is also affected by extreme events

appearing more frequently in the mountain regions.

In Upper Svaneti in West Georgia, for example,

95 per cent of the region is under threat of avalanches

of varying degrees (MoENRP 2015), while Adjara,

Georgia, is exposed to the risks of mudslides and

landslides (MoENRP 2015).

The vulnerability of the tourism sector in South

Caucasus was assessed in the Third National

Communication to UNFCCC from Georgia

(assessing the entire Georgian tourism sector) and

Armenia (for the tourism industry in the Vayots

district) (MoNP 2015; MoENRP 2015). Based on

these assessments, some conclusions can be drawn

from the impacts of climate change on tourism

activities in the region of South Caucasus. The

Armenian assessment of the Vayots district predicts

Shahdag Mountain Resort, Azerbaijan