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Furthermore, increasing temperatures during the
spring and summer months, coupled with reduced
water availability in rivers, is also likely to enforce
rural-urban migration due to the adverse effect on
agriculture. 40 per cent of Armenia’s arable land
is already uncultivated due to a combination of
climatic and socio-economic issues (CENN 2013b).
Eco-migrants are especially vulnerable as they are
currently not recognised under national legislative
frameworks as Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs),
which places them outside of any legal protection
from governments (CENN 2013a,b,c).
The frequency of extreme temperatures and heat
waves has increased in South Caucasus (MoENRP
2015; MoENR 2010; MoNP 2015) and scientific
studies show a direct link between extreme
temperatures and increased risk for people with
cardiovascular or chronic respiratory diseases,
especially the elderly (McMichael
et al
. 2006; Cheng
and Su 2010). Records from Azerbaijan show that
during heat waves, the number of first aid calls related
to blood, respiratory and neural diseases increases
significantly (MoENR 2010). Urban heat stress is a
particular concern in the region, though to a lesser
extent in higher altitudes due to lower temperatures.
Tbilisi, Georgia, for example, may see an increase in
dangerously hot days from an annual average of 21
days between 1955 and 1970, to an annual average of
63 days between 2020 and 2049.
Several diseases associated with warmer weather
are likely to become more prevalent in the South
Caucasus, including vector-borne diseases such as
leishmaniasis and malaria (MoNP 2015; MoEPNR
and UNDP 2009). While the risk of malaria is
currently low throughout the region, a warmer
climate may lead to new outbreaks (MoENRP
2015; MoENR 2010; MoNP 2015). According to
Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication to
the UNFCCC (MoENR 2010), a warmer climate
has already increased the length of the epidemic
season. Areas between 500 and 1,200 m.a.s.l have
had the highest increase in the length of the season,
by 15–30 days, compared to the Kura-Araz lowland,
where the season has extended by 5–10 days. A study
from Armenia found that the projected increase in
air temperatures may cause malaria outbreaks along
Lake Sevan, but also increases the risk of outbreaks
in sub-mountainous and mountain areas due to
the vertical shift of climate zones brought about
by warmer temperatures (SHMS 2013). Warmer
temperatures and extreme events, especially floods,
are also thought to increase the incidence of food
and water-borne diseases. There has been a marked
increase in such incidents in Armenia as well as
Azerbaijan during recent years (MoENR 2010;
MoNP 2015)
The effects of climate change on human health and
safety is unlikely to be distributed evenly among the
people of the South Caucasus. One reason for this
is the different lifestyles and unevenly distributed
resources between men and women. A key parameter
that determines the vulnerability of humans is the
rate of poverty. For the South Caucasus, women
tend to have fewer financial resources than men,
leaving women with fewer means and possibilities
to withstand or recover from climate change impacts
(Social Service Agency Georgia). The financial
opportunities for women to cope with the stress of
climate change are fewer when compared to those for
men, and even less in the mountain regions (UNDP
2013a).Whilemen are often responsible for providing
financial resources, women in the South Caucasus are
typically tasked with securing basic resources such as
water, food and energy, and this can be hindered if
natural disasters occur. Perhaps influenced by these
responsibilities, women are also found to be more
psychologically affected by natural disasters than
men. In addition, they face greater challenges when
applying for relief aid, which further increases their
vulnerability to climate change (CENN 2013).
The rates of migration in South Caucasus are highest
in Armenia and Azerbaijan, and show substantially
higher rates for men than women. The main reason
for men leaving their communities is to work abroad.
Most of the male migrants from Armenia and
Azerbaijan are married, whereas the female migrants
are typically single. InGeorgia, gender does not seemto
be a determinant of migration (Dermendzhieva 2011).
Whenmale migrants are married, this means that they
are leaving behind a wife and possibly children. The
daily responsibility of securing water, food and energy
for the family is left entirely to the women. The out-
migration of men frommountain villages not only has
consequences for the family he leaves behind but also
for mountain communities as a whole.