36 / 88
36
climate change will impact the tourism industry on
several fronts. First, it can lead to increased costs
for accommodation and catering businesses (e.g.
if additional cooling is required due to increasing
temperatures). It is also expected that the security of
tourists may be at risk from the projected increase
in natural hazards such as mudflows, floods and
rock falls. Historical sites and monuments, as well as
infrastructure may also be at risk (MoNP 2015).
The Georgian assessment of the tourism sector focused
on three regions in the country –Adjara, Upper Svaneti
and Kakheti. It used the Tourism Climate Index (TCI)
developed by Mieczkowski (1985) to determine
the impact of climate change on the tourism sector.
According to their analysis, the weather conditions in
Adjara have become more favorable to the industry
over thepast fiftyyears. Predictedchangeswill continue
this trend and prolong the spring/summer season
in mountain areas, while the conditions will worsen
in coastal areas by 2050. Upper Svaneti (Mestia), a
region famous not only for mountain tourism but
also for its cultural and architectural monuments
will be negatively affected by increased temperatures.
In contrast, better environmental conditions are
expected in Kakheti from October to March. Indeed,
as summer temperatures in the lowlands are predicted
to reach uncomfortable levels, mountainous areas
with their cooler climates can expect an increase in
summer tourism (MoENRP 2015).
As mountain regions are one of the most exposed
areas to natural disasters, increased development of
mountain tourism must be supported by improved
preparedness and monitoring of natural disasters
as these are predicted to increase in frequency and
magnitude. In Mestia, for example, the number
of injuries is 3 to 4 times higher than the national
average, a result of the high frequency of natural
disasters and the high risks involved in some forms
of mountain tourism. Damage to transportation
networks, gas- and electricity systems and sanitation
and water systems are also a concern for tourism
(MoENRP 2015).
Another negative impact of climate change is the
reduction in the size of glaciers in the Greater
Caucasus Mountains, which are a popular attraction
for tourists, as well as being important for water and
energy security. Cultural monuments and historical
buildings, important attractions in, for example,
Upper Svaneti, may also be negatively impacted by
increased precipitation and air humidity as it can
cause the mortar that bonds the stone together to
dissolve (MoENRP 2015).
Human health and safety
Climate change directly impacts human health and
security. Natural disasters have the most obvious and
immediate impact on people’s health and security
as they abruptly destroy property, livelihoods,
infrastructure, can be fatal, and often force people to
leave their homes and communities. The exposure
to floods and land- and mudslides is especially high
across the SouthCaucasus, and themountainous areas
and its communities are hardest hit (UNIDSR 2009).
Heavy rainfall in June 2011, for example, resulted in
floods and landslides in western and eastern Georgia
that caused severe damage to farmland, roads
and bridges, canals, water and gas pipelines, and
communication networks. Seven people died and a
total of 3,000 households were affected (Red Cross
2011). The following year, an extreme hailstorm,
windstorm and flash flood affected 20,000 families
in the Kakheti region of Georgia and damaged over
5,200 houses, as well as water, gas and electricity
distribution systems. The total economic impact
when considering the damages and losses came to
US$ 123 million (Bergsma 2012).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Malaria
Incidence per 100,000 population
Climate-related diseases in the Caucasus
in 1999-2013
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Sources : National Statistical Services; MLHSA-Georgia; FAO-data.
0
1
2
3
4
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Leishmaniasis
Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.
0
1
2
3
4
Thousand
Thousand
Circulatory system diseases
0
4
8
12
Respiratory system diseases