33 / 88
33
extreme events, such as floods, land- and mudslides.
Such events reduce and disrupt production and
can prevent delivery of energy. This was already
witnessed when a landslide on the Georgia-Russia
border caused major damage to the North-South gas
pipeline transporting gas from Russia to Armenia in
2014 (Agenda 2014).
Due to the projected increase in temperatures,
especially during summers, it is expected that energy
demand for cooling will increase in summer months
(WB 2009). Urban heat stress is likely to be the
most serious climate change-related health issue in
the region. In the city of Vanadzor, Armenia (1,424
m.a.s.l) dangerously hot days are expected to increase
seven-fold by 2040 as compared to current figures
(UNDP 2011).
Despite its vulnerability, all three countries are investing
in new hydropower plants to increase their energy
security and meet their growing energy demands and
renewable energy targets. In Georgia, for example,
forty new hydropower plants are to be developed to
meet that country’s ambitious goal of generating all
of its electricity through renewable resources in the
coming years, up from 92 per cent (Green Georgia
2015). Armenia had 115 small hydropower plants in
2010 and another 88 are under construction while an
additional 108 have been approved (Government of
Armenia Protocol Session Resolution No. 3 of January
22, 2009). Due to the sensitivity of hydropower plants
to climate change, it is crucial that future water flow
reductions are considered in new developments
(Stanton
et al
. 2009).
Even though electricity is available throughout the
South Caucasus region, energy poverty is widespread
in remote villages due to the high costs of electricity
and gas (WB 2015). Poor households commonly
use traditional sources of energy for heating and
cooking, such as burning firewood, shrubs and dung,
as well as plastic and other waste, in combination
with electricity and gas (SE4ALL 2012). In total,
poor households in Georgia may use as much as
30 per cent of their income on energy (Gamisonia
2014). Poverty reduction is, therefore, an important
strategy to increase energy security in rural mountain
areas and in general to increase their adaptive capacity
to climate change.
Industry
The industrial sectors of the three countries were
developed during the Soviet era with a focus on rapid
economic growth and little consideration for the
potential environmental impacts.Themain industrial
activities taking place in the mountainous regions
of South Caucasus are related to the extraction and
processing of natural resources. These activities are
important to all three countries but they have a high
impact on nature. Mining activities alter the structure
of the landscape, which in combination with climate
change can have severe consequences. In addition,
mining and processing activities often create toxic
waste, which can have adverse impacts on the
surrounding environment if not securely contained.
With the increasing impacts from a changing climate,
it becomes more important to consider these when
planning for new mining activities (USGS 2010;
USGS 2014; UNECE 2010).
The physical condition of industrial structures in
general is another important issue. Old structures
are generally less secure and more unstable and so
are less resilient to extreme weather events already
occurring in the South Caucasus and predicted to
occur more often in the future. The combination
of extreme events (e.g. landslides, mudflows, and
floods) and unstable infrastructure can have severe
and destructive consequences. In Azerbaijan alone,
Armenia
GWh
GWh
GWh
GWh
Sources : National Statistical Services of Armenia and Azerbaijan; MENR;
ESCO; East Invest.
Azerbaijan
Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.
Georgia
South Caucasus
Potential hydroresource, Energy
consumption and Power generation by
HPP in the South Caucasus in 2013
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Potential
hydroresource
Energy
consumption
Power generation
by HPP
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000