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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
Ukraine transit disruption
For the Ukrainian transit route disruption also the situation is significantly improved.
The new infrastructure linking South-East Europe to the Western markets and the
new connections to LNG in that region have beneficial effects. While not fully lifting
the infrastructure limitations and resulting demand disruption risk, they allow to
decrease the demand disruption rate from 13% to 3% for Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Bulgaria, Croatia, FYROM, Hungary and Serbia. There is also a slight improvement
from 2020 to 2030. In 2030 the situation in Romania (demand disruption rate of
22%), related to the reported decreasing indigenous production over time is not
improved by the advanced infrastructure level and remains more tense than for
neighbouring countries, due to remaining infrastructure limitations in accessing this
country.
Blue Transition
2020 Advanced
EU Green Revolution
2020 Advanced
Blue Transition
2030 Advanced
EU Green Revolution
2030 Advanced
0%
20%
100%
0%
20%
100%
50%
Remaining Flexibility
Disrupted Demand
Figure 6.32:
Disrupted Rate and Remaining Flexibility under Ukrainian route disruption,
Blue Transition and Green Revolution, DC, Advanced infrastructure level