Informs 2015

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INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015
330
TC35
35-Room 412, Marriott
Disaster and Emergency Management I
Contributed Session
Chair: Rafael Diaz, Research Associate Professor, Old Dominion
University, 1040 University Blvd, Suffolk, VA, 23435,
United States of America,
1 - An Optimization Model for Seismic Hazard Loss Analysis for
Spatially Distributed Infrastructure
Hasan Manzour, Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of
Washington, Box 352650, Seattle, WA, 98195-2650, United
States of America, , Rachel Davidson
The new Optimization-based Probabilistic Scenario method produces a small set
of probabilistic ground motion maps to represent the seismic hazard for analysis
of spatial distributed infrastructure. A set of just 124 ground motion maps were
able to match the hazard curves based on a million-year Monte Carlo simulation.
This enormous computational savings has substantial implications for regional-
scale since it can allow many more downstream analyses.
2 - A Model of the Effect of Pandemic Influenza on the
U.S. Blood Supply
Hussein Ezzeldin, FDA, CBER, 10903 New Hampshire Ave,
Bldg 71 Rm 1009C, Silver Spring, MD, 20993, United States of
America, , Arianna Simonetti,
Richard Forshee
We present the spatial and temporal impact of Pandemic Influenza (PI) on the US
blood supply through an inter-regional blood transfer system. We utilize a hybrid
optimization heuristic to enhance the global performance of the network. Using
Neural Networks trained by Particle Swarm Optimization, we model a function of
regional factors to optimize the daily blood transfers among US regions. We
simulate the effect of PI on regional blood transfers and compare to those during
normal operations.
3 - Agent-Based Modeling to Simulate Resilience of Water Systems
for Healthy and Secure Communities
Emily Berglund, Associate Professor, North Carolina State
University, CB 7908, Raleigh, NC, 27695, United States of
America, , Jacob Monroe, Hayden
Strickling, Michael Knepper, Elizabeth Ramsey, M. Ehsan Shafiee
Civic water systems are vulnerable to attacks and disasters that threaten the
health and security of communities. When water service is lost due to a water
quality failure or an attack on critical infrastructure, the decision-making of
perpetrators, security personnel, utility managers, and the public can influence
event outcomes. An agent-based modeling approach is developed to simulate the
impact of sensing, communication, security, and infrastructure management on
community resilience.
4 - Decision Support to Air Rescue Unit Allocation in Disaster
Management Operations
Sergio Reboucas, ITA, Rua H9C, Apt. 302, São Jose Dos Campos,
SP, 12228612, Brazil,
After a disaster break up, rescue helicopters have a valuable role in response
phase. The allocation of these air rescue units requires knowledge about certain
conditions that are most of times uncertain and its analysis and trade-offs must be
thoroughly done. This paper aims to suggest a methodology to support the air
rescue unit allocation decision in a natural disaster response phase context.
5 - Modeling Housing Stock Recovery after a Catastrophic
Storm Event
Rafael Diaz, Research Associate Professor, Old Dominion
University, 1040 University Blvd, Suffolk, VA, 23435, United
States of America, , David Earnest, ManWo Ng,
Joshua G. Behr
Severe catastrophic storm events adversely affect housing stock and regional
capacity to build and repair houses. Rebuilding this capacity takes time while the
region faces an unexpected surge in the demand. We present a simulation model
that considers a supply chain perspective. The model provides significant insights
for policy makers into how the production of permanent housing depends upon
the uncertainties and feedback effects of material, labor, funds, and regulatory
environments.
TC36
36-Room 413, Marriott
Humanitarian Applications III
Sponsor: Public Sector OR
Sponsored Session
Chair: Melih Celik, Middle East Technical University, ODTÜ Kampüsü
Endüstri Mühendisligi, Oda 219 Cankaya, Ankara, 06800, Turkey,
1 - Pre-disaster Unmanned Air Vehicle Base Location and Routing for
Road Damage Assessment and Repair
Seyyed Kian Farajkhah, Middle East Technical University, METU-
Cankaya, Metu Campus Endöstri Möhendisligi, Ankara, 06800,
Turkey, , Melih Celik
Following large-scale disasters, unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) can help efficiently
gather data on the status of the roads in the network. Given a set of potential
disaster scenarios, we address the problem of establishing connectivity between
relief supply and demand by means of road repair. A two-stage stochastic model is
developed to determine a UAV base location and time-limited routes so that the
expected shortest path length between the supply and demand nodes is
minimized.
2 - Disaster Operations Management: Recovery Classification and
Research Framework
Niratcha Grace Tungtisanont, PhD Candidate, Clemson
University, 100 Regency Dr, #22, Central, SC, 29630,
United States of America, , Aleda Roth,
Yann Ferrand
We propose a research framework for improving post-disaster phase recovery. We
address what types of investments should be made and their relative allocations
in the “pre” and “during” emergency phases to improve the effectiveness of the
recovery process? We use the proposed framework to draw managerial and policy
implications.
TC37
37-Room 414, Marriott
Kidney Allocation and Exchange
Contributed Session
Chair: Naoru Koizumi, Assoc Professor, GMU, 3351 N Fairfax Dr,
Arlington, VA, 22203, United States of America,
1 - The Dynamics of Kidney Exchange
John Dickerson, CMU, 9219 Gates-Hillman Center, Pittsburgh,
PA, 15213, United States of America, ,
Tuomas Sandholm
We discuss analytic, optimization, and game-theoretic approaches to matching in
dynamic kidney exchange. We consider dynamism (i) at the post-match pre-
transplant stage (ii) as patients and donors arrive and depart over time, and (iii)
as multiple exchanges compete for overlapping sets of participants. We
empirically validate our models and theoretical results on over 150 match runs of
the UNOS national kidney exchange.
2 - A New Model to Decide Kidney–Offer Admissibility Dependent on
Patients’ Lifetime Failure Rate
Michael Bendersky, Ben Gurion University of the Negev,
Beersheba, Israel, , Israel David
We propose a new model to decide kidney-offer admissibility depending on
patient’s age, estimated lifetime probabilistic profile and prospects on the waiting
list. We allow for a broad family of lifetime distributions - Gamma - thus enabling
flexible modeling of one’s survival under dialysis. It yields the optimal critical
times for acceptance of offers of different qualities and may serve the organizer of
a donation program, the surgeon and the individual recipient practicing patient-
choice.
3 - Preemptive Approach to Kidney Allocation in USA
Philip Appiahk-Kubi, Ohio University, 14 Pine St, Apt. #1B, The
Plains, OH, 45780, United States of America,
The new kidney allocation policy improves kidney utilization. However, the
policy has no consideration for allocation of cadaveric kidneys under emergency
situations; a problem observed by the National Kidney Foundation. This research
evaluates a point scoring model with considerations for emergency allocation.
Simulated results indicate that the model minimizes number of waitlist deaths by
2% while prioritizing sensitive candidates and waiting time.
TC35