87 / 124
South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |
87
7.3 Assessment Results
In accordance with the results obtained in TYNDP 2017,
no major capacity issues were detected to face demand
under perfect market conditions
2)
for the countries that
constitute the South-North Corridor Region when the
European supply is not facing any disruptions. However,
additional projects can heavily improve security of sup-
ply and market integration under more market based
conditions.
As for the considered disruption scenarios, the biggest impact in Europe occurs
when considering a problem with Russian or Norwegian supplies.
For this 3
rd
edition of the SNC GRIP, the cases for which results are visualised below,
are the following ones:
Russian disruptions:
\\
full interruption of flows through Ukraine and Belarus
\\
partial interruption of flows only via Ukraine
Norwegian disruption:
\\
assumed to be related to Norpipe outage.
In these cases all demand in the CEE and/or NW Regions cannot be met and
considerable impacts would be expected, especially under peak demand conditions.
SNC capacities could help to transport some more gas from other sources to the im-
pacted countries to relieve their conditions, potentially bringing less expensive ener-
gy resources being far from the problematic situations and therefore less influenced
by the considered supply crisis.
Throughout the simulated scenarios a wide range of different flow patterns in Europe
in general and along the South-North Corridor in specific is observed. This illustrates
the flexibility in the potential usage of the Corridor infrastructure in the centre of
Europe to connect the various markets from north to south or from south to north
under diverging conditions and potential combinations of demand and supply.
Results showing a utilisation of the South-North Corridor backbone in the reverse
direction have been in particular identified. In the following sub-sections, only the
most significant examples of such market behaviour are highlighted with a focus on
the circumstances leading to these kinds of flow patterns
3)
.
The hypothesis underlying the represented flow patterns should not necessarily be
interpreted as strictly realistic neither as a forecast of possible future situations. The
case study assumptions have been designed to capture those market behaviours
that the ENTSOG network modelling tool can currently not replicate, due to the basic
routines and building blocks that each model must adopt as a simplification to
reality.
2) The ENTSOG network modelling tool assumes a one-shipper behaviour without commercial restrictions taking into
account only technical capacities.
3) It has to be noted that other flow combinations might also be possible to cope with the considered supply and
demand profiles: this is an observation that should always be considered when looking at results from ENTSOG NeMo
simulations.