ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 - Main Report

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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 | 91
Table 7.3: Boundary conditions for case study 2a and 2b
ITs
IT
ITe
CH
DEn
FRn
AT
2030 LOW Disruption Ukraine
NO min
ITs
IT
ITe
CH
DEn
FRn
AT
2030 PCI Disruption Ukraine
NO min
Figure 7.7: Case study 2a flow patterns Figure 7.8: Case study 2b flow patterns
7.3.3 CASE STUDY 2A/2B
CASE DESCRIPTION
Year 2030
Climatic conditions Peak Demand: Overall EU
Supply disruptions Russian flows via UA
Infrastructure level
a) Low
b) PCI
Supply prices Norwegian most expensive
A second analysed configuration is assuming only a partial disruption of Russian
flows, related to the Ukrainian transit route (flows through Belarus are not interrupted).
In addition, similarly to cases 1a and 1b, the main residual pipeline source available
to Northern European countries (Norwegian gas) is set as trading at a premium,
becoming relatively more expensive than all other potential supply sources.
Similarly to the previous case studies 1a and 1b, also here 2nd PCI list projects are
making additional resources available from Italy towards Northern Europe. In par-
ticular, the effect of the “Adriatica Line” commissioning creates additional capacity
in the South of Italy (ITs) and makes enough volumes available to the Italian system
able to support a complete reverse flow layout (Figure 7.8), which is not detected in
case Italian network reinforcements are not implemented (Figure 7.7).