ENTSOG South-North Corridor GRIP 2017

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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017

Some recent actual examples which cannot be fully covered neither foreseen due to

the necessary degree of simplification any model requires are:

low LNG deliveries combined with other specific demand drivers, such for

example multiple nuclear outages in France (December 2016) or Northern

Europe

more or less prolonged cold snap, associated with high demand for power

generation (January 2017)

restriction to storage or production capacities at key facilities (Rough in the

United Kingdom, Bergermeer and/or Groningen in the Netherlands during

2016)

Nevertheless, some of these events almost brought “Transitgas [forward] flows close

to zero” (Argus European Gas Report, 7 February 2017) with the price spread

between PSV and Northern EU hubs reverting to a discount from the current usual

premium conditions.

The gas infrastructure managed to support the high energy demand under all the

specific circumstances mentioned above.

In the following sections, the results obtained from the NeMo model are reported

identifying the prevailing flows under the considered cases. Since the specific

figures produced by the model represent one of potentially many solutions, the exact

numbers for flows are not reported. Flow directions and relative magnitudes are

considered as the significant outcomes and represented respectively by arrows and

corresponding thickness.

For Italy, the two nodes ITs and ITe, which represent respectively the total of

capacities available in competition for import flows at southern Italian IPs (flows from

North Africa, Southern Corridor, East Mediterranean, Middle East and possible

future LNG regasification plants) and the total of capacities in competition for export

flows towards Austria and Switzerland, are reported in addition to flows at the Italian

national balancing point (IT) in order to be consistent with the NeMo network

topology.

For all the following flow patterns representations, the darker blue arrows should be

intended as results produced by the NeMo modelling tool taking into account the

same assumption on capacities as in TYNDP 2017. The faded blue arrows refer to

flows originating from simulations taking into account the capacity at Oltingue IP

from Switzerland to France as fully firm. This additional sensitivity analysis, included

in the “cases c and d,” for consistency reasons has been adopted to reflect the

particular nature of the capacity at Oltingue IP from Switzerland (CH) to France

(FRn), currently declared as firm without additional constraints only at the Swiss side

in the direction of CH towards FRn (at the French side its nature is still under

definition).

4) For a complete description of the capacities along the South-North Corridor and their use in the ENTSOG NeMo tool,

please refer to the previous

in particular to the section