89 / 124
South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |
89
ITs
IT
ITe
CH
DEn
FRn
AT
2030 LOW Disruption Ukraine–Belarus
AZ-DZ-LY max
ITs
IT
ITe
CH
DEn
FRn
AT
2030 PCI Disruption Ukraine–Belarus
AZ-DZ-LY max
Figure 7.3:
Case study 1a flow patterns
Figure 7.4:
Case study 1b flow patterns
Table 7.1:
Boundary conditions for case study 1a and 1b
7.3.1 CASE STUDY 1A/1B
CASE DESCRIPTION
Year
2030
Climatic conditions
Peak Demand: Overall EU
Supply disruptions
Russian flows (UA+BY)
Infrastructure level
a) Low
b) PCI
Supply prices
Southern sources cheaper (AZ+DZ+LY)
Under the circumstance of a full onshore Russian disruption, Norwegian and LNG
flows would be the first primary sources available for Northern Europe. This situation
is likely to generate a price increase for these residual resources which would be
traded at premium compared to relatively cheap sources from Southern and
Southeastern Europe, being less affected by the critical situation. The flow patterns
arising from this situation are triggering flows from Southern to Northern Europe, as
represented in Figure 7.3 and Figure 7.4. The Italian network is exploiting its
possibility to accommodate gas flows towards Northern and Central Europe activating
a double reverse flow at IT-CH and IT-AT borders. Nevertheless, the maximum use
of the reverse flow infrastructure is made possible under the 2
nd
PCI list infrastruc-
ture level, which includes the additional capacity from the South of Italy to the North,
available from 2023 onwards by the commissioning of the PCI project “Adriatica
Line” (264GWh/d). In particular, with the commissioning of this project, higher
volumes potentially coming from new sources (e. g. Azeri gas through TAP) are
expected to flow at the Griespass interconnection point, jumping from a threshold
which seems only locally relevant to two-third of the total reverse flow technical
capacity from Italy towards Northern Europe, highlighting a more relevant impact on
a continental scale.